At last the riders have some serious downhill roads to deal with.They will need them as the racing has been very difficult so far.It will be a difficult start with several bumps,perfect for the morning break to gain some time.Michael Matthews showed yesterday that he is the dominant sprinter in the race and it’ll be up to Orica to chase down the break.Garmin helped in stage 5 but may be reluctant to do so here as Farrar was poor at the finish.There have been rumours that Astana would like to give the red jersey away before the weekend,so Orica will have to do a lot of work to ensure a bunch sprint.
Positioning will be everything and stage 5 showed that Argos have the best train,so expect Arndt to be present again,but Matthews had great positioning and the most power,a very dangerous combination.The positioning of Farrar,Richeze and EBH wasn’t good.
There have been some big crashes in previous Vueltas on ends like this,so the GC riders may be a touch nervous and they should really ease back after the 3km to go sign.
Matthews must be the big favourite with Arndt looking to spring a surprise.
Matthews is 2/1 so probably not worth it but I’m on Arndt at 18/1.
I also like the look of Barguil v Nibali as the young Frenchman was high up in the sprint train today for Argos and will be present again tomorrow.This is not a finish for Nibali and with the tight corners he’ll be happy to back off and finish safely in the peloton.
1 point e/w on Arndt at 18/1
4 points on Barguil v Nibali