La Vuelta – Stage 11 Preview

The day after a rest day can often cause problems.

Screen Shot 2013-08-16 at 23.20.57The GC riders will hope not as they reach the 38.8km individual time-trial.

Screen Shot 2013-08-16 at 23.22.07The riders tackle the cat 3 climb the Alto del Moncayo.It’s around 4% for 9km,so not particularly hard and should be a day for the TT specialists.

The descent is very technical and should be extremely fast.

This should be a straight fight between Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara for the stage win.The hill means that it’s a much harder call to make and I see them being close to each other.

The length of the course means that we should see some significant gaps between the GC riders and Chris Horner has said he expects to lose the lead to Nibali.

Nibali has been very good at time trialling,this season.He easily won the Giro mountain ITT(4th in the other ITT) but that was on a much harder climb.He should be able to make up big time on all his rivals and put himself in a commanding position.

I would have expected Konig to go very well in this stage and basically secure a top 10 spot but his recent illness means a big question mark will be over his head.

We all know Rodriguez has suffered in the past on time trials but he put in an excellent performance in the Tour ITT and will be confident of staying in contention.

It’s quite strange as most of the top 20 are not the best at this discipline:Horner,Valverde,Rodriguez,Roche,Moreno,Basso,Pinot,Majka,Pozzovivo,Capecchi and Santaromita.

We should see Nibali,Konig,Kangert,Henao,Uran and Sanchez take some time bag.However,in the middle of a grand tour,form is the most important factor in a mountain TT so I would expect most of these riders to be in the top 30 on the stage.Both Uran and Sanchez don’t appear in the best of form but you just never know.

I do think that Kangert can make big strides into the top 10.He finished a brilliant 3rd in the other Giro ITT,only 4 seconds behind Wiggins.

I think that Tony Martin will win,Cancellara 2nd and Nibali 3rd.I would expect Nibali to put,at least,1 minute into his GC rivals and maybe up to 3.

The descent is not good news for Pinot and Pozzovivo and they could be a big losers on the day.

Recommended bet:-

Majka to beat Pozzovivo 10 points at 17/20

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