The cat 3 climb is 5.9km at 5.1% and the cat 2 climb is 12.5km at 4%.
The final climb only has an average of 4% but that is due to the very easy start to it and kilometres 10 to 12.Due to this I think most riders will be together until the final few kilometres.It is listed as 15km but the final 30km is actually uphill,so it’s a very long climb.
Astana have been more than happy to let the breaks win the stages and I see tomorrow being no different.Do Radioshack,Movistar or Katusha have the firepower to chase the break?I wouldn’t normally think not but this stage is short,so they might have enough today.
Nibali doesn’t like winning a race without taking a stage and he might just fancy this one if the race gets brought back together.
The weather is also forecast to be much better tomorrow and this will be great news for the peloton.
There are 8 points available in the KOTM classification before the final climb and I’ll be interested to see if Nicolas Edet or Amets Txurruka go in the morning break.Txurruka tried twice in stage 15 but failed,whilst Edet timed it perfectly and took the polka dot jersey.
I think that the length of the stage and a need for Nibali to win a stage will ensure a break doesn’t win tomorrow.That means the strongest man wins and it has to be Vincenzo Nibali.
If a break stays away look for Valls,Gastauer,Mollema and Howes.
Recommended bet – 2 points on Nibali at 8/1