Tour of Britain – Stage 3 Preview

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It’s time for an individual time-trial.

Screen Shot 2013-09-16 at 14.12.37It’s 16.1km long,so there will be some time gaps between the GC favourites.You can see there are long,straight sections so good for a rider with a big engine,like Wiggins.

Screen Shot 2013-09-16 at 14.14.11The stage is quite flat,so this will be a battle between the TT experts.

Going on reputation,this will be between Wiggins and Dowsett.

The forecast is for rain and cross-winds!

I remember the time-trial that Wiggins did in the Eneco Tour.He was ultra-safe in the corners and this cost him the victory.With the Worlds so close and being his main goal,the prospect of wet roads will not fill him with joy.If the roads are wet will he play it safe?

Dowsett beat Wiggins in the long ITT at the Giro and won the national championship but his last ITT was poor,finishing 27th.

Here are the other top riders and they’re recent ITT performances:-

Coledon – 6th at Italian nationals and 26th in Denmark

Lofkvist – 23rd in Denmark

Golas – 70th in Poland

Bauer – 23rd Dauphine and 34th Bayern

Elmiger – 2nd at Suisse nationals and 3rd in Denmark

Pardilla – 35th in Portugal

Vermote – 3rd at Belgian nationals and 59th in Denmark

Bongiorno – 48th in Denmark

Stannard – 18th Eneco and 8th Bayern

Cavendish – 5th in Denmark

In terms of recent form the one that sticks out is Elmiger.He was only beaten by Fabian Cancellara at his national championship and has looked in good form of late.

Bauer is thought of as a good time-trialist but his own results don’t back it up.He does excel in team time-trials.

Stannard has solid form and Sky might want a back-up plan to Wiggins,or he worked hard today so might decide to go easy as he’s only here to support Wiggins.

I didn’t bet on the Eneco ITT as I thought Wiggins was going to win easy.After he didn’t I thought that betting on an outsider in these stages is advisable.On a short course,there are a  lot of things that can cause a rider to lose.

I’m going with form and long odds and backing Elmiger to win at 50/1 with Ladbrokes,also available at 66/1 with PP,but I can’t bet with them.

I did see that the Bardiani DS said that he expected a good performance from Coledon,so you might be interested in him.He’s in good form,finishing 4th and 8th in stages 1 and 2.

You might remember that I’ve backed Elmiger at 66/1 for the overall.He has started well and should do a good ride in stage 3 but you can still get 40/1 with BetVictor to win the overall.He’s well worth an each way punt!



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