San Benedetto del Tronto > San Benedetto del Tronto 159.2km

The race ends with a sprint stage. We do have a few hills in the opening half of the stage, but then we have a lot of flat which is ideal for the sprint teams to catch the break. When organisers put a sprint stage at the end of the race, it can sometimes give the breakaway riders a little hope, it does depend on how well the fast men have endured the GC stages. We still have a lot of sprinters in the race, quite a few teams will be interested in chasing down the break and setting up a grandstand finish.

Weather

Nice and sunny. We do have quite a strong wind, but the lap circuit in the town is well protected by buildings.

Finale

A corner just inside the final 3km, followed by another one with just over 2km to go. Then we have a long straight section before a roundabout and a chicane with 1km to go. Clearly, this is where you need to be in a good position, if you want to win the sprint.

Contenders

Tim Merlier – the Belgian starts the stage as the big favourite. He brilliantly won the opening stage; his sprint train did a great job that day. 5^th wasn’t a great result the following day, but you can’t always get it right. Alpecin-Fenix have a good sprint train, Merlier will be confident about taking another win.

Mark Cavendish – hasn’t sprinted yet, but I would imagine he’ll give it a go in this stage. Crucially for the team, Evenepoel will be back in the sprint train, something he’s not done in the first two sprint stages. With Asgreen, Alaphilippe and Evenepoel in the train, QuickStep will likely dominate the final 3km. Then it will be over to Ballerini to guide Cav into the perfect spot for the sprint. With such a strong train, Cavendish will have a great chance of taking the win.

Olav Kooij – 2^nd and 3^rd in the two sprint stages, he’s been close to getting his first world tour win. Jumbo-Visma have some big TT lads in the sprint train, but it’s not as long as other teams. Given the type of finish we have, having a short train is a disadvantage.

Arnaud Démare – 2^nd place in Terni was a welcome return to form for the Frenchman. It’s taken a while for him to get going this season, but I’m hoping he’s now ready to kick on and land some wins. His sprint train is strong, but does he have the speed to beat the riders already mentioned?

Pascal Ackermann – now that the GC is settled, UAE can throw some more resources his way. Who knows, we might even see Pogačar getting involved in the lead out.

Phil Bauhaus – looked good in the first sprint stage but got swamped in Terni. His lead out looks strong, he’s one of the riders who has the speed required to win this stage.

Alexander Kristoff – Wanty haven’t managed to get it right yet this week, they have one last chance. He’s unlikely to win this sprint, but he should be challenging for the podium.

Jan Tratnik – breakaway hopeful number 1. 

Benjamin Thomas – breakaway hopeful number 2.

Filippo Ganna – breakaway hopeful number 3.

Nikias Arndt – breakaway hopeful number 4.

Prediction Time

With Remco in the train, it’ll be a win for Mark Cavendish.