Roskilde > Nyborg 201.7km

The opening road stage of the Tour is one that has potential so split in the wind, or at least that’s what many of us hope. The prospect of echelons in the opening weekend is something most would love to see, but it all depends on the weather. If it doesn’t play ball, this will be a bog-standard sprint stage. Now, it is the first road stage, so nerves will still be high throughout the day, even if we don’t get echelons. Fingers crossed we don’t see the types of crashes that we so often get at the start of this race.

Weather

Cloudy sun, but what about the wind? It will be above 20km/h for the whole stage, which is strong enough to cause splits, but the direction of the wind isn’t great. Coming from the south-west means that all the crucial sections of the day are either cross/head or headwind. Some teams will still try and split things, but it seems unlikely we’ll see any echelons.

Tactics

Without Tim Declercq to control the opening 160km, what is going to happen? The start should be pretty standard, but without the breakaway killer, those given that job will need to be watchful in the opening kilometres, the break will need to be small. With the polka dot jersey to fight for, I’m interested to see who wants to jump in the morning break, it wouldn’t surprise me to see someone like Magnus Cort on the move. His goal won’t be the stage win, he would love to take the KOM points and stand on the stage in front of his home fans at the end of the day.

As I’ve already mentioned, some will try and split the race as the bunch head south, from km 130 until 175, but the cross/headwind will make it almost impossible to create echelons. We’ll then have the scary prospect of the whole bunch heading over the 18km bridge, at the end of the stage. I’ll be honest, this gives me the fear, I’m very happy that the riders will face a block headwind at this point. If we can avoid big crashes, we should see a full bunch sprint to decide the winner of the day.

Finale

Very untechnical. The final corner comes with 700m to go, a good position at this point is vital. The sprint itself will be a headwind, so being a little bit further back when everyone starts to launch, might not be a bad thing. If it was me, I’d be waiting as long as possible before opening up the sprint. 

Contenders

Fabio Jakobsen – 5th August 2020 is a day that I remember well. As Fabio flew towards the finishing line in Katowice, he suffered one of the most horrendous crashes I have ever seen. Watching it live I immediately feared for his life, the crash was sickening, it still makes me shiver to this day. First of all, it was incredible that Fabio lived, and at that point nobody would have thought any less of him if he simply walked away from the sport. He did not. Instead, he set out on a tireless recovery program, and incredibly won a race on 21^st July 2021. His determination to return to the very top of the sport had me in awe, I have so much respect for this man. Just under 2 years on from his crash, he starts the Tour de France for the first time, with the goal of winning stages, something no one would have thought possible, but this man is a fighter, a lion, a wolf. Tomorrow he will have the best lead out train in the race, in front of him will be Asgreen, Lampaert, Sénéchal and Mørkøv, this is his trusted lead out train, a group of riders who know each other inside out. I have no doubt, they will control the final kilometres and Fabio will start his sprint from the front. We’ll then have to see if he has the legs to complete one of the most remarkable comeback stories in sporting history. I fucking hope he does.

Dylan Groenewegen – left Jumbo-Visma for BikeExchange so he could ride in the Tour de France. The Aussies have thrown considerable support behind their fast man, he arrives with Jansen, Matthews and Mezgec as his sprint train, it looks very fast to me. He’s taken 5 wins this year and seems to be growing in confidence as the year has progressed. His recent win in Slovenia was an excellent example of a confident rider, he simply waited for the door to open and smashed straight through it. Of course, he and Jakobsen have a lot of history, but that’s not something I want to dwell on. He already has 4 Tour wins to his name; will this be number 5?

Caleb Ewan – injuries and other sporting decisions means that one of the fastest sprinters in the world arrives at this race with a weak sprint train. It could well take a few stages before things click into place, especially as Caleb’s record in the first sprint stage of big races is unremarkable. The headwind could well help him in this stage, as I doubt he’ll be at the very front in the final kilometre. This is someone who can thread the eye of the needle in the final 200m, coming from deep could well suit him. 

Jasper Philipsen – he’s missing Jonas Rickaert, one of the best lead out men in the world. The team will look to van der Poel, Sbaragli, Planckaert and Krieger to guide their fast man in the closing kilometres. Alpecin-Deceuninck always seem underrated to me, some of these men might not grab the headlines, but they rarely fail to deliver an excellent lead out. I would expect to see Philipsen launch his sprint from near the front, but will he have the power to win?

Wout Van Aert – yes, he won in Paris last year, but can he really win the opening sprint of the Tour de France. I have huge respect for Wout, but I don’t think he’s fast enough to win when all the quick men are at their best. The other huge goal is yellow, a second place finish is good enough to see Wout take the jersey, this he can do.

Mads Pedersen – can he take the win for Denmark? He’ll have Kirsch and Stuyven to guide him into position, and he does have the speed required to challenge for the win, but he needs to do a perfect sprint.

Prediction Time

QuickStep look very strong, and their man is sprinting incredibly well, so I’ll take a win for Fabio Jakobsen. What a reward for all his work to get back to his best.