Dunkirk > Calais 171.3km

The first rest day is out of the way, and the race moves to France. We have a stage in the rolling roads of north-east France, not far from the border with Belgium, quite a few of the Belgian riders will have friends and family at the start and finish.

Weather

Cloudy sun, with temperatures around 20 degrees. The wind shouldn’t be a problem.

Final Climb

Côte du Cap Blanc-Nez is the last obstacle of the day, it crests with 10.8km remaining. Normally a hill of 1.1km at 7.6% wouldn’t be a big issue, but this is the Tour de France. The entrance to the climb is narrow, so all teams will want to be at the front, which will increase the pace. Just before the climb we have an unclassified lump, which the peloton will fly over, adding a little fatigue in the legs of the fast men. Then when they hit the actual climb, those too far back will find it very hard to stay in the front group. 

Finale

Just outside 3km to go there is a roundabout with both sides open, but the left-hand side is significantly faster. The next roundabout is just outside 2km to go, only the left-hand side is open, which will string the peloton out. Depending on the size of the bunch, this could be a dangerous moment in the finale. Next up is a big right turn with 1.4km to go, followed by a left turn with 500m left. It’s much more technical than previous finishes.

Tactics

This will likely be another sprint finish, but some of the pure sprinters might not survive the final climb. It really is all about positioning, starting the final climb at the front will allow sliding space, which will be crucial as the pace will be high on the climb. Looking to make it tough will be Jumbo-Visma, this is a great chance for them to drop some of their main rivals. Those who are dropped on the climb will not make it back to the front for the sprint, if you want a chance to win the stage you need to stay in the main group.

As Jumbo-Visma will likely drive the pace on the climb, it’s unlikely we’ll see anyone attack off the front, especially given it’s a relatively short climb. The technical finish also means you need some lead out men to help in the final 5km, those without help will find it very difficult to take the win. In recent stages I’ve been very impressed by Christophe Laporte, his presence will be important for Van Aert, he’s likely to start the sprint in a good position, but can end his run of 2^nd places?

Contenders

Wout Van Aert – this is a good-looking stage for him, it’s a great chance for him to take his first win of the race. He’s been very close in the first two sprints, and with the final climb likely to take a little off the top speed of his rivals, he’ll be confident of taking the win in this one. His positioning in the opening stages has been impressive, he always seems to be in a good position at the right moment. I expect Benoot to make the climb hard, then Laporte can guide in the closing kilometres, setting up Wout for a crack at the win.

Caleb Ewan – the climb shouldn’t be a problem for him, and if the bunch is reduced, it should make it easier for him in the sprint. Despite us having two sprint stages, he’s yet to fully open his legs, which must be very frustrating for him. This is another good chance for him, he usually climbs better than the pure sprinters.

Mads Pedersen – he’s another who won’t mind the position of the final climb. He didn’t get his win on home soil, but he’s still in with a shout in this stage. Stuyven will be the man to help in the closing kilometres, he’ll hope to get him to the front when the sprint is being launched. 

Jasper Philipsen – the climb won’t be a problem for him, and he’ll have van der Poel to help in the closing kilometres, which will be a massive plus. He sprinted very well on Sunday, a better starting position and he would have taken the win. He’s one of the men to keep a close eye on.

Fabio Jakobsen – can he survive the climb? If he gets a good starting position, he should be okay, but it’s not guaranteed. He took a great win on Saturday but didn’t manage to challenge for the win on Sunday. We all know he’s sprinting very well just now; he must start as one of the favourites. 

Dylan Groenewegen – he’s the most vulnerable on the climb, but after getting through a tough Dauphiné, he’ll hope to survive. Just like Jakobsen, a lot depends on his position when the climb starts.

Tom Pidcock – hopefully he attacks on the final climb.

Prediction Time

Jumbo-Visma to make life difficult for everyone in the final 30km, and despite the length of the final climb I think some will get dropped. In the tricky finish, Laporte will be very important and Wout Van Aert will get his first win of the race.