Perth > Perth 177km

After missing out on the ITT crown, Jayco will take to the start line determined to make amends, but the pressure (as always) is on. Last year, Luke Durbridge managed to get up the road with Conor Leahy, eventually riding him off the wheel. The peloton struggled to close the gap, but in the closing stages Luke Plapp did manage to bridge across to his teammate. With the chasers losing ground, Plapp did the right thing and allowed Turbo Durbo to take the home in his hometown. The team would love something similar, but as ever, it doesn’t matter which of their riders wins the race, as long as one of them does. Losing would be a disaster for the team, so the heat is on. The race is the exact same as 2025, the route turned out to be more challenging than most thought, I’m expecting another attritional day in the saddle.

Weather

The race kicks off at 1450 local time, the temperature is due to be a rather hot 35 degrees. As the day goes on it will drop by a few degrees, but this is going to be a hugely challenging day for riders, missing bottles is not an option. The wind is due to be around 10km/h, coming from the south, so I don’t think it’s going to have an impact, but the heat will. There is a small chance of rain late in the day, but it’s only 5-10%.

Circuit

13 laps but still less than 2000m of climbing. There are two climbs, but last year the final one was the most significant. This little kicker is 700m at 5.3% and did a lot more damage than I first thought.

Nothing too technical.

Tactics

Before looking at this race, what the hell happened to Plapp in the ITT? He was miles off the pace, and I have no idea why. He’s always the main man for nationals, but his ride on Thursday adds a huge amount of doubt into my mind. Okay, it could have just been a bad day, but it might also be that he’s a little bit sick, this isn’t making my job any easier. Jayco’s whole approach will be based around Plapp being the strongest rider in the race, if he’s not, they need to go back to the drawing board.

Numbers are very important in this race, Jayco are here with only 6 riders, gone are the days when they used to arrive with over 10, and they could easily dictate what happened. Of those 6, Porter and McKenzie aren’t riders who are going to win this race, they’ll purely be used in domestique roles, I doubt either will even be allowed to go for the break. That leaves 4 leaders, I’d expect Durbridge and O’Brien to be going for the break, leaving Plapp and O’Connor as finishers. The reason for this is Durbridge and O’Brien would find it hard to win from the elite group of riders left in the peloton, but Plapp and O’Connor certainly can. 

Jayco aren’t the biggest team in the race, that prize goes to CCACHE x BODYWRAP, they have 8 riders on the startlist. They’ll be desperate to get in the break, if not, they’ll be duty bound to do all the chasing due to having the most guys. The problem they have is a lack of quality, only Liam Walsh is realistically capable of challenging for the win, which puts them into a tricky tactical position. 

The other squad with numbers is Team Brennan, just like Jayco they have 6 guys starting the race. Conor Leahy who was in the last year’s break rides for them, as does Oliver Bleddyn, he pulled off a huge result on Thursday, finishing 2^nd in the ITT. Also in their ranks is Patrick Eddy, who’s just stepped down from the world tour, where he rode for Picnic.

A break featuring riders from these 3 teams would be a disaster for everyone else, there’s a lack of domestiques to chase. Almost all of the world tour riders are solo, that’s Vine, Welsford, Dinham, Mackellar and Plowright. With teammates being like gold dust, Chris Harper will be delighted to have Damien Howson, as will Brady Gilmore, he has Zac Marriage to do some chasing on the front. The idea of the big 3 teams will be to put serious pressure on these guys, once isolated, the chasing stops and it makes it difficult to catch whoever is up the road. To put it into perspective, Jayco have won 7 of the last 8 road races, their only failure was back in 2019. They are masters at making the right calls in the right moments, especially with Matt Hayman in the car, someone who’s been there, done it and bought the t-shirt. 

Okay, enough fluff, what’s actually going to happen. The first couple of laps will be used to try and get riders up the road, expect to see a lot of Jayco, CCACHE and Brennan. What happens after all depends on who makes the break, but from previous years Jayco have always been keen on keeping the peloton in the race, even if it means it looks like they are chasing their own men. With such a hot day expected, winning from the early break will be incredibly difficult. Being out there all day in 36 degrees will significantly reduce the break’s chances of winning. I’d expect the winner to come from the peloton, but who? The route really is perfect for Luke Plapp, he’s the rider who should start as the huge favourite, but after Thursday, all bets are off. Ben O’Connor is obviously a great bike rider, but he needs hills, I think he’d find it hard to drop the punchy riders, unless Jayco can manufacture a situation where he goes solo in the last 2 laps. For me, the whole race revolves around how good Plapp is going to be. If he’s good, Jayco will win, if not then I think the win will go to another.

Contenders

Luke Plapp – so many questions, the answer will be revealed on Sunday. Plapp normally starts the season in flying form, but Thursday’s ITT has cast significant doubt on this. If good, this is a great route for him, especially as it’s not got enough hills for some of his main rivals to properly shine. I’d expect Plappy to stay in the peloton and trust his teammates, saving his big moves for the second half of the race, then we’ll see what his shape is really like.

Ben O’Connor – would love to win in his hometown and he’s been back in Australia since early November, clocking up a lot of kilometres in the legs. This is a sign he’s serious about winning this race, he’s not here just to wave at friends and family. Winning a race like this will be hard for a climber like O’Connor, but riding for the strongest team will give him a big advantage. He’ll hope his rivals have to use up energy chasing in the finale of the race, allowing him to remain fresh and then hit them with a sucker punch. Despite being from Perth, O’Connor is renowned as someone who goes well in cold/rainy conditions, I’m not sure how he copes with the heat, and you can’t just assume he goes well due to being an Aussie!

Luke Durbridge – took a dream win last year and I’d expect him to try the same move this year. If Durbo is going to win this race, he needs to be in the early break, simple as that. Even then, there’s no guarantee he wins, it all depends on what happens behind him.

Kell O’Brien – same as Durbridge, I think he goes for the break and takes his chances from there. Winning against the better climbers will be hard, if he’s back in the peloton.

Chris Harper – 2^nd in 2024 and 2019, 3^rd in 2018, hopefully this is his year. He’s no longer with Jayco, he made the jump to Q36.5 and I hope it helps him eventually win this race. Having just one teammate isn’t ideal, but he knows how to ride against Jayco from his BridgeLane days. 2025 was a bit stop/start, but winning the penultimate stage of the Giro was huge, showing everyone just how good a rider he is. After going close previously, could this eventually be his year? I’ll find out more from Chris on Saturday as he’ll be on the preview show with me.

Brady Gilmore – caught my attention for the first time in this race last year, I then kept a close eye on his results. Gilmore is one of those riders who survives punchy climbs and has a decent sprint on him, perfect for this type of race. He was 4^th in 2025, he’ll be hoping to move onto the podium and hopefully challenge for the win. It would be a mistake for anyone to take him to a sprint (apart from Welsford), Jayco need to make sure they drop him.

Jay Vine – brilliant win in the TT, he says he’s been working hard over the winter. He was 6^th in this race last year, it’s not one that suits him, he would like more climbing. The thing is, being such a good TT rider, he should be able to win any type of race, he just needs a gap, then it’s goodnight for everyone else. Jayco will view him as their main danger, he’ll be heavily marked anytime he moves, making it hard to go for the win, but not impossible if he’s on a good day. Vine doesn’t have any teammates to help him, he’ll need to play a clever tactical game to overcome this disadvantage.

Liam Walsh – 3^rd last year, he’s got what it takes to challenge the big boys. It’s a big help to ride for the team with the most riders, Walsh will sit in the peloton and save all his energy for the last couple of laps. After some big results in 2025, I was surprised that no one took a risk on him, you can be sure he’d be riding world tour if he was born in Belgium.

Matt Dinham – after close to 2 seasons were ruined by injury, it was great to see him return to the peloton late last year. That would have set him up well for the winter, he’ll be hoping to hit the ground running in 2026 and make up for lost time. If he can find the legs he had in the 2023 world championship road race, he’ll be a hard man to beat.

Sam Welsford – it should be too hilly for him, but he’ll give it everything he’s got. He was very active last year but crashed hard and had to step off the bike. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he’s still in contention with 1 lap to go, but I’ll happily be proven wrong.

Oliver Bleddyn – after a huge ride in the TT, I’d be a fool not to include him in this section. He was in the main peloton last year, eventually finishing 8^th, so he’s got what it takes to be a challenger for the podium. 

Prediction Time

So hard considering I have no idea how Plapp will be. I’m going to avoid picking him and will instead go a little left field and take Brady Gilmore. It’s a great route for him, hopefully he’s still in the mix and can use his fast finish to take the win.

Betting Corner

Plapp did open at 6/4 (2.5 for you European folk!) but his price was on the drift as soon as he bombed the ITT. This race isn’t an easy one to get right, even more so this year. The 4 Jayco boys have to favourites due to team strength, but picking the correct rider requires skill and luck. Vine at 7/2 doesn’t appeal to me in the slightest, being a solo rider is very difficult. Due to my own bias, I’m tempted by Harper and Gilmore, but history has shown me one thing, don’t bet on this race! The temptation is there as it’s the first of the season (especially looking at Plapp’s odds), but my advice is to keep your money in your pocket.

Previews for 2026

Hopefully you enjoyed this preview and think to yourself, I’d love to hand over £60 to read everything this guy writes this year! In 2025 I wrote 305 previews, which works out at 20p a preview. If you want to pay via PayPal, give me a shout on social media. If this is the last time you read my previews this year, I bid you a fond fair well. For subscribers, my next race will be the women’s TDU.