Bétera > Torrent 171.3km

After today’s fun, this one should be a day for the sprinters. We have 2500m of climbing, most of which is dealt with before the final 50km. There are several sprint teams at the race, we should have lots of riders looking to get on the front and control the break. There is a little kicker with 17km to go, but 720m at 7.6% shouldn’t be putting the sprinters into difficulty. Saying that, we’ll likely see attacks at this point and attackers will have a chance of stealing the win.

Weather

Another nice day with sun and pleasant temperatures.

Finale

Interesting! With 1.5km to go the bunch must negotiate a double roundabout which leads onto a relatively narrow road. With 1km to go the road gets even narrower, we’re talking about 5 or 6 bikes wide. With 800 to go it’s a fast right hand turn at a roundabout and this leads onto the finishing straight.

The final 700m averages 4%, this is a grippy finish, but still one for the fast men.

Tactics

It’s all about positioning in the final 3km. The road really does get rather narrow as the riders approach the flamme rouge, then they have a fast corner and an uphill finish. Those who want a chance to win will look to dominate the final 3km, those with a poor position will have no chance of winning. The teams with the best sprint trains will be confident of delivering their fast men into a winning position.

Contenders

Fabio Jakobsen – the Dutch sprinter is back with Mørkøv as his lead out man. In front of them they’ll have Lampaert, a rider who is very good in the closing stages of races. Looking to get them into a strong position will be Černy, a real powerhouse of a rider. As usual, I would expect QuickStep to dominate the closing stages, especially as Remco will want to be near the front, which will put Jakobsen into an ideal position for the sprint. If that happens, he’ll be a hard man to beat.

Elia Viviani – back at Ineos, a move that took most of us by surprise. Without a sprint train to help, I don’t rate his chances in this stage.

Juan Molano – loves an uphill sprint, but will he be UAE’s chosen man? They also have Trentin, but he was a DNS in Marseille, making it doubtful he’ll be okay to sprint just a few days later. Molano won’t have much help, he’ll have to choose a wheel to follow and hope to get lucky.

David Dekker – the Jumbo-Visma train looks very powerful to me. They’ll have Affini and Eenkhoorn to look after their young sprinter. It might not be very long, but these lads have power in their legs. This is a big year for Dekker, I think we’ll see him take many wins.

Giacomo Nizzolo – like many of the sprinters, he doesn’t have much of a sprint train to help. He had an okay start in Mallorca, and will like the uphill sprint, but he’s likely to start from too far back.

Matt Walls – the track rider should have the skills to negotiate the hectic finale. Last year he won gold in Tokyo, and then won on the road in Gran Piemonte. He is a young sprinter with a big future ahead of him, he’ll be hoping for a good start to 2022.

Alexander Kristoff – at last, a rider with a proper sprint train. After riding in support of Girmay in Mallorca, it’s time for Kristoff to get back in the mix. With Vliegen, Pasqualon, Petit and Bystrøm to lead him out, Wanty should be confident of dominating the final kilometres of this stage. It’s the first time they’ve ridden together as a block, it might take a few races for them to get things right. Saying that, they’re all experienced riders and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Kristoff fighting for the win.

Prediction Time

I think it should be Jakobsen versus Kristoff due to the strength of their sprint trains. I expect Wanty to be the team to control the final kilometre but think Fabio Jakobsen will have the power to take the win.