Vivar > Villadiego 157.6km

The second stage in Burgos is a nailed-on sprint, it’s not a day that’s going to get exciting until the final 10km.

Weather

Another roasting hot day. There is a small chance of echelons in the final 30km, but I don’t see splits.

Finale

The above image is the final 9km, it starts with a climb of 1.3km at 6%, nothing that should worry any of the fast men. Then we have a very long straight round, and a corner with just 200m to go. Not a well-planned finish if you ask me. The long straight is hard for sprint teams to get right, timing you move to the front is what it’s all about. Inexperienced teams will hit the front too early, the better squads will wait for the final 2km.

Contenders

Davide Ballerini – he doesn’t have much of a sprint train with him, I expect Steimle to shoulder much of the responsibility to get the Italian in a good position for the sprint. Recent form is good, but there are a couple of riders who are faster than him at this race. That means he needs a great position for the final corner, but I’m not sure he’ll get it.

Martin Laas – doesn’t get many chances to sprint for Bora, but when he does he normally goes very well. The Estonian is probably one of the fastest men in the peloton who rarely gets to sprint, I do have a soft spot for him. He won’t have much help in the closing stages, but I hope to see him go well. 

David Dekker – with Affini and Roosen as his train, Dekker has a good chance of being at the front of the race for the final kilometre. His first race for Jumbo-Visma was the UAE Tour back in 2021, and he finished 2^nd in one of the sprints, but that’s his best result as a Jumbo-Visma rider. He’ll be determined to try and get a win before he leaves the team at the end of the year, this could well be his best chance.

Fernando Gaviria – without doubt, he’s the fastest rider in this race. He had a good but frustrating Giro; he’s not won a stage since February. His lead out looks a bit thin on the ground, but Matteo Trentin can still get him in a good spot for that final corner. 

Jon Aberasturi – another rider without much of a sprint train, but he does have Alex Kirsch. As most of you know, I’m a big fan of Alex, he is an excellent lead out man. The problem for them could be holding position inside the final 4km.

Rudy Barbier – I never know what to expect from him.

Manuel Peñalver – he’d love to take a big result in his home race, the pressure is on! His best result of the season was 2^nd way back in Valenciana, to be fair to him, that was one hell of a sprint by him. If you like an underdog, you’ll be cheering him on.

Orluis Aular – another fast man from one of the Spanish teams. The Venezuelan has a very fast sprint, but he rarely gets to start his sprint near the front. The final corner with 200 to go is bad news for him.

Alessandro Fedeli – another fast man from a small team. The EOLO-Kometa man should be challenging for the top 10, the top 5 on a great day.

Prediction Time

I’ll take the fastest man, it’s a win for Fernando Gaviria.