With Paris-Nice getting lots of attention, you’d be forgiven about missing Tirreno-Adriatico, but not by me! The top two GC riders in the world might be in France, but there’s plenty of talent at this race, and it now looks wide open. The route contains no surprises, it’s a classic Tirreno route. Please note, the organisers have classified one climb as HC, the rest are all cat 1s. This does not mean they are all cat 1 difficulty, it’s just a nice way of giving a rider from a smaller team a chance of winning the KOM jersey.
The opening stage is a 11.5km ITT in Lido di Camaiore, the traditional host town for the first stage. Ganna blasted them all away last year, it’s a course for the specialists.
The second stage sees the bunch head down the coast for a sprint finish. It’s the first of three consecutive stages over 200km, perfect preparation for the classics.
This stage heads east to Foligno and another bunch sprint.
The fourth stage hits the Adriatic coast, and the day ends with a lap circuit containing a punchy climb. We’re talking 3km at 7%, which means the puncheurs will fight out the win.
The big mountaintop finish, Sarnano Sassotetto. The organisers are big fans of this climb, Simon Yates and Landa have won here in the past. 12km at 7.3% doesn’t sound that hard, but it is.
Speaking of Simon Yates, this stage finishes in Osimo, which is where he took a brilliant win in the 2018 Giro. It’s the same finish as that day, but the climbs aren’t all the same. This is the classic muro stage.
The race ends with the typical sprint finish in San Benedetto del Tronto.
Contenders
UAE – they start with the strongest squad, it’s one of the best teams at this race in many years. Not only do they have Almeida, but also Yates and McNulty, they have lots of options for the mountain stages. The TT is short enough to ensure it won’t ruin your GC chances, the GC will be decided on Sarnano Sassotetto. Having three options puts UAE into a very strong position, they’ll be disappointed if they don’t win.
Jumbo-Visma – there are questions surrounding Van Aert and Roglič, which puts Kelderman into the team leader position. However, I’m not going to write off the other two, both can pull something out the bag. Technically speaking, Van Aert can survive the mountain stage and fight for the win. Roglič was due to start his season in Catalunya, but that has been brought forward, which indicates that his current form must be good, but after so long away from competition we’ll have to wait and see how he goes.
Bahrain – Landa and Caruso are the likely leaders, the short TT is good news for both. Competing against the quality of climber in this race will be hard for them, finishing on the podium would be a good result.
Enric Mas – he’ll see this as a huge chance to win his first stage race in Europe. He ended 2022 in amazing form, it was the best he’s ever ridden, and he started this year looking good too. One issue is the team strength of his rivals, he’s likely to be outnumbered in the finale of the GC stages, but he’ll back himself to take the win.
Aleksandr Vlasov – another who’ll see this as a huge chance. Vlasov is quickly developing into a one-week expert, his record in 2022 was outstanding. He arrives here with a strong team to support him, beating him won’t be easy.
Thymen Arensman – he’s already had enough bad luck to last the whole season, he’ll be hoping for a smooth week. He’s not quite at the level of the climbers already mentioned, and he would have preferred a longer TT, but a top 10 finish should be achievable.
Julian Alaphilippe – I’ll throw his name in the hat as the big GC stage only has one proper mountain, but his performance in Strade Bianche is a concern.
Hugh Carthy – first time he’s ever raced here. The big man is favouring a heavier racing schedule this year, something I’m in agreement with. After a solid start to the year, I’m expecting a good result.
Prediction Time
UAE have the numbers to put the others under pressure.
I’ll take a win for Adam Yates.
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