Follinica > Foligno 216.5km
The bunch head east in what should be another sprint finish.
Weather
The wind is coming from the south-west, so it’s crosswind the whole day, but with the wind under 20km/h, it’s unlikely to do much damage.
Finale
This 4km stretch from 11km to 7km to go is an interesting point. There’s a relatively strong cross/tailwind, and the road is narrow. I doubt there will be splits, but a good early position is very important.
The final 2.5km is very technical, so much more interesting than an arrow straight road. There’s a narrow left-hand turn with 2.5km to go, a tight right bend with 2.1km to go, then a tight left-hand turn with 1.2km to go, which is quickly followed by a right turn which takes the bunch under the flamme rouge. The next obstacle is a chicane with 700m to go before a right-hand bend with just 400m to go.
Tactics
I’d want to be on the front for the turn with 11km to go, those who have a long sprint train have a massive advantage. Moving up is going to be tough, especially as everyone needs to be at the front for the final 3km. With so many corners, those with the best lead out will boss the finale, it’s going to be very hard for a sprinter who only has 1 or 2 helpers.
The final bend with 400 to go is an interesting one, it doesn’t finish until 200 to go, and any lead out man with their salt knows what to do. As you finish the final pull, you move to left, which not only allows your sprinter the shorter run to the line, but it also means sprinters who launch from behind must go further to the left to avoid this man. It’s not cheating, it’s common sense. A certain Greg Henderson used to be a master at this.
Contenders
Fabio Jakobsen – Alaphilippe, Bagioli, Ballerini, Pedersen and Van Lerberghe, that’s one hell of a sprint train. As they don’t have anyone going for GC, the whole team can get involved in the finale, and don’t forget the excellent work Devenyns did chasing the break today. The whole team did a good job, Pedersen and Van Lerberghe did excellent “unseen” work in the final 10km, and Ballerini seemed to last forever in position 4. With such a strong train to help, Jakobsen starts as the favourite to win another stage, but it won’t be easy, this is a tough finish to get right.
Jasper Philipsen – was very close to winning today, but it wasn’t to be. Alpecin will be pleased with how the train worked, even though they made a few mistakes, Philipsen was in a great position with 300m to go. As this was his first sprint of the season, Philipsen will be very happy with how his legs responded, he’ll hope to win a stage this week.
Dylan Groenewegen – Jayco always seemed to be near the front, but not on the front, and Groenewegen wasn’t in a great position in the final 500m. It was a tough sprint to get right, this stage should be easier for them due to their long sprint train. The experience of someone like Mezgec is crucial for a finish like this.
Biniam Girmay – doesn’t really have the top end speed to win a big sprint, but he wasn’t far off today. Intermarché will go again, Bonifazio and Teunissen will hope to deliver another top lead out.
Phil Bauhaus – likes a technical finish, he should be challenging for the podium.
Prediction Time
I don’t think there’s much between the top 3, a little bit of luck could be the difference between first and second.
Looking at the finish, I’ll take a win for Dylan Groenewegen.
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