Morteau > La Chaux-de-Fonds 162km
The finale of this stage is very similar to the stage Roglič won in 2019, it’s almost a carbon copy. That day we saw a group of 20 riders fighting for the win, there wasn’t a sprinter in sight. Colbrelli did his best to hang on, but even on great climbing form he couldn’t survive the final categorised climb. That doesn’t mean the same will happen this year, it all depends on who wants to ride in the bunch. In 2019, Hugh smashed the cat 2 climb to try and set up Michael Woods, do any of the GC teams fancy a bit of it this time round?
Weather
Another cloudy day.
The Climbs
Col de la Tourne is the cat 2 climb, it’s a tough one, 4.9km at 6.7%. If a team wants to, this is where a lot of the sprinters will be dropped.
Next up is the cat 3 climb, Le Communal. Just 1.6km in length, but the average of 7.8% will sting the riders who had to go into the red on the previous climb. In 2019, we saw big GC attacks here, which done for Colbrelli.
If that wasn’t enough, there’s an unclassified lump just 5km to go.
Tactics
For me, this is a proper finish, it has a little bit of everything. Some fast men like Cort and Hayter will hope to hold on, but GC riders can have some fun in this type of finish and gain crucial seconds in the fight for the overall title. First, someone has to chase the break, and that’s unlikely to be Soudal – Quick Step or any of the big GC teams. Most will look to EF and Ineos to do the donkey work, and judging by today’s effort, this is something they are likely to do.
The problem is that once they’ve worked all day, a GC team could well hit the final climbs hard and put Cort and Hayter into difficulty, Bora will like this idea as Higuita is the best sprinter of the GC riders. This isn’t an easy stage for him to win, but it’s certainly easier than the Queen stage. Bora will sense an opportunity of taking the win, remember, this is a big race, and the team would love the exposure.
Once the climbs are dealt with, the size of the front group will be interesting. Last time it was a chaotic finish, it was attack after attack. Will any team have numbers to control? Will anyone have a couple of options to play? It’s a brilliant finale, one that is very hard to predict as it depends on several variables.
So, I think Ineos and EF will control the break and chase them down. Then we’ll have to see if a GC team comes to the front on the final two climbs to try and drop Cort and Hayter, I hope they do. If this does happen, any team that has multiple riders in the front group will have a big chance of taking the win.
Contenders
Ethan Hayter – today was another frustrating finish for his team. Ineos worked for a long time, making sure most of the fast men got dropped, but Hayter didn’t sprint. Ineos had a terrible position in the finale, and it wasn’t even a full bunch, I’m not sure what they were playing at. He eventually got to the front, but lost position and couldn’t sprint. This isn’t the first time this has happened, it’s not great to be honest. This is another stage the team have targeted, at least it’ll be easy moving around the bunch in the final 5km. One issue is the strength of the team, I don’t see them being able to control the climbs, or have men left to help in the finale.
Magnus Cort – was distanced a bit on the early climb in today’s stage, made in back in, then EF rode for him. He got a good position with 2km to go, but then it all went wrong for him. I think it’s only natural that after not racing since Sanremo his legs would be a little rusty, but will that put the team off riding for him in this stage? Even with some rust, he’s their best chance of winning this stage, so I think they’ll work.
Quinten Hermans – it all depends on his legs and the size of the bunch. He was looking good in Liège, a mechanical before Roche aux Faucons took him out of contention for the podium. If the front group is around 30 riders, he’ll fancy his chances.
Sergio Higuita – the fastest of the GC riders, this is a big chance for him. He wasn’t at his best in the Ardennes, maybe deliberately taking it a bit easy before this race. Bora have riders who can make the climbs hard, but if that happens, he won’t have support in the finale. This is a risk they must take.
Matteo Jorgenson – exactly the type of rider who can win this stage. I want him to attack on the final climb and take a solo win. His sprint isn’t too bad either, so a small group wouldn’t be a disaster either, it just depends on the other riders in the move.
Tom Gloag – started the season in a very impressive way, and after a spell at altitude, he should be even better. His sprint is pretty good, and he’s not afraid to attack either. Jumbo-Visma are likely to have the most riders in the front group, which gives Gloag a great chance of taking the win.
James Knox – after a brilliant Basque Country, I’m excited to see what he can do in this stage. Did you notice his short turn today? A clear sign the team wanted him to save his legs. The punchy finale is a good one for him, and he knows he can survive until the end as he did so in 2019. His first pro win isn’t far away.
Jesús Herrada – the medium mountain King. Cofidis are likely to have him and Izagirre in the front group, and Herrada has a fine sprint for a mountain guy.
Romain Bardet – 4th today in the sprint, which backed up an excellent TT, the legs are clearly good just now. DSM are one of the teams who’ll want to push the pace on the climbs and distance the fast men, they’ll want Bardet to take advantage of his form.
Prediction Time
Ineos and EF to control the break. Once on the big cat 2 climb, we’ll see Jumbo-Visma and probably Bora come to the front. The pace will be pushed on and both Cort and Hayter won’t survive, Cort will get dropped on the cat 2 climb and Hayter on the cat 3.. The rest of the stage will be chaotic, and the winning move will need a bit of luck.
A finish for Matteo Jorgenson.
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