Châtel-Saint-Denis 18.7km ITT

A nice TT, one that will interest the GC and TT riders. There’s 4km of flat, then a couple of little kickers before the proper climb starts. This crests with 6km to go, nearly all of it is downhill.

Weather

Not great. There’s quite a lot of rain around, it could get very heavy for the late starters. The downhill won’t be easy in wet conditions.

The Climb

For me, it’s not hard enough to bring all the GC riders into the equation, some of the TT specialists will still fancy their chances.

Contenders

Ethan Hayter – I think he’ll lose time on the climb, and he won’t make it up on the descent. 

Matteo Sobrero – the climb is a good one for him, he likes a punchy effort, and he’s in good form. His win in the Giro TT was like this one, not only is he good uphill, but he also flies downhill. The problem could be wet roads.

Rémi Cavagna – doesn’t mind a lump or two in a TT, and this year he’s climbing better than ever before. He’s in the same position as all who go late, he’ll be constantly checking the weather throughout the day.

Tobias Foss – another who I think will lose too much time on the climb.

Gino Mäder – would like the climb to be longer.

Matteo Jorgenson – currently going very well, but Movistar don’t have the best equipment.

Romain Bardet – imagine Bardet making it into this list for a TT! He was the best of the GC contenders in the prologue, something that caught me by surprise. It’s a shame he’s likely to get wet roads.

Juan Ayuso – despite it being his first race of the year, he looks in good form. He starts fourth from last, not great with the rain that’s predicted.

Ion Izagirre – if everyone is on wet roads, he’ll have a big chance of taking the win. Without doubt, he’s one of the best going downhill in the rain.

Mikkel Bjerg – is this the day he finally wins his first TT as a pro? Given how good he was in the under 23 ranks, I find it incredible he’s not won at senior level. At some point it’s going to happen, but will it be in this stage?

Lawson Craddock – one of the best TT riders of the early starters. If he gets out in the dry, and the rest in the wet, he’ll win.

Marco Brenner – another early starter who’ll hope the rain falls later. 

Prediction Time

I’ll trust the weather forecast, which is a big risk.

Embed from Getty Images

It’s a win for Lawson Craddock.