Le Pont-de-Claix > La Bastille 153km

The fight for the yellow jersey is over, not that it really got started, but everything is still to play for in the fight for the podium. The final stage looks like an excellent day for the breakaway, as Vingegaard is miles better than everyone else, and there’s a climb at the start of the stage. Of course, it needs the right mix to go all the way, we’ll have to see if anyone sitting too close on GC sparks a chase.

Weather

Sunny and temperatures will be around 20 degrees.

Key Points

Côte de Pinet starts very close to be beginning of the day, perfect for climbers wanting to force a strong breakaway. 

Col du Granier is the only HC climb in the stage, it’s a very difficult climb. 

Col du Cucheron comes next.

Then it’s Col de Porte. A fast descent follows into the foot of the final climb.

Mamma Mia! La Bastille must be seen to be believed; it is ridiculously steep. Harder than the Mur de Huy tells you everything you need to know.

Tactics

From Col du Granier, there’s no flat roads, it’s just up and down mountains. This could see some GC riders looking to attack from distance and try to put others under pressure. Jumbo-Visma don’t have to chase everything down, they only have to focus on a handful of riders. I think we could see some teams try to get satellite riders up the road, this would give a big advantage to anyone who wants to attack from distance, having a teammate to help pull on a climb would be very welcome.

La Bastille is a brilliant climb, but I can’t help feeling it will put riders off attacking, due to how hard it is. If you use up energy before this point you risk totally blowing and losing a lot of time. With small gaps on GC, most will be cautious and wait, which is a shame for those wanting to see attacking racing.

The fight for the break will be intense, but the uphill start helps the climbers to make the move. Some riders sitting a little down on GC would love to jump in the break, but teams like AG2R, UAE and Bora will be watching carefully, they have good spots on GC to defend. Anyone in the top 20 is still a threat to the podium, I think if they attack it will spark a chase, but you can’t ask them not to. Those in the break will pray it doesn’t contain a GC threat, if it doesn’t, it should go all the way.

The amount of climbing in the stage means you need to be excellent going uphill to take the win, whether that’s from the break or GC group. Jumbo-Visma did a great job today, a non-threatening break will allow them to ride tempo deep into the stage, meaning Vingegaard will have support in the finale, it’s all about break management. You never know, maybe they let Benoot or Valter to get up the road, that would take the pressure right off.

Contenders

Jonas Vingegaard – he’s in a league of his own at this race, he’ll take a well-deserved win. If the race comes back together for La Bastille, he wins, simple.

David Gaudu –it’s been a terrible race for him, he’s been way off the pace. Now, it never ceases to amaze me at how riders’ fortunes can change from one day to the next, he cannot be written off. 

Clément Champoussin – likes a steep climb, La Bastille could be good for him. He’ll be going for the break and hoping he’s one of the best climbers.

Hermann Pernsteiner – he looked nice and strong today, riding in support of Jack Haig. The Aussie sits in 5^thon GC, hopefully the team allow Pernsteiner freedom to chase the stage win, Haig won’t be winning from the GC group.

Tiesj Benoot – it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a Jumbo-Visma rider in the break, it’s the type of move they love to pull off in big mountain stages. If it does happen, Tiesj will have to wait before getting the all clear to chase the stage win, the team will see if there’s any early action in the GC group before deciding.

Oscar Onley – he’s now out of the GC picture, hopefully that frees him up to attack. Winning a stage like this against those already mentioned will be very difficult for a rider so young, but he’s got the quality to hold his own.

Prediction Time

Breakaway day.

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I’ll take a win for Clément Champoussin. Back in the GC group, Vingegaard will win yellow, Yates will be 2^nd and Hindley will edge out O’Connor for 3^rd.