Dax > Nogaro 182km

The fourth stage is another opportunity for the sprinters. It’s a day with just one categorised climb and only 1659m of climbing, perfect for the big lads of the bunch. Don’t expect much to happen, I doubt anyone will be keen on going in the breakaway.

Weather

Things are getting a warmer, temperatures will be up to 27 degrees.

Finale

The finale takes place on a motor racing circuit, hence all the sweeping bends. The bunch enter the circuit with 2.3km to go, then it’s all about trying to keep a good position, that won’t be easy due to the wide roads. These finishes can be very hard to get right.

Tactics

Nothing required here. The break will roll off the front and everyone can have a nice chat in the bunch. With around 30km to go, things will start to get a little more exciting, but days like this can be very dangerous as crashes always seem to happen.

The battle to control the sprint will start with around 10km to go. Today, it was Soudal – Quick Step who did everything right until 1km to go, that’s when Alpecin-Deceuninck surged to the front and swamped the likes of Jakobsen. The team nailed it today, it was a brilliant example of how to hit the front at exactly the right time, they’d love to do it again in this stage.

Contenders

Jasper Philipsen – after today’s win, he starts as the favourite, but will van der Poel be in the train? The team have said that he won’t be part of the lead out for every sprint, but with two mountain stages to follow, I think he’ll be back helping his friend in this stage. If they produce another quality lead out, Philipsen will be impossible to beat.

Fabio Jakobsen – the team did a brilliant job today but were caught out by the late surge of Alpecin. They had Alaphilippe helping, Lampaert was brilliant in position 4, Asgreen impressed in 3, but we didn’t get to see Mørkøv doing his thing. This is another opportunity for the team, they just need to get Fabio into a good position and let his legs do the rest.

Dylan Groenewegen – another sprinter who tried a late surge, but with only two men in front of him, it was always going to be difficult. This is likely to be another hectic sprint, Groenewegen would benefit from hitting the front early and then trying to surf wheels.

Mark Cavendish – today was a good start for Cavendish, this stage is even better for him. Experience will be important for this finish; it should favour Cavendish over some of his rivals. Without much help, winning is still going to be a big challenge.

Caleb Ewan – another who looked good today but didn’t really get the chance to sprint for the win. With De Buyst hurting from his crash, Caleb decided to use Jakobsen as his lead out man, which was a clever move. Unfortunately, when Jakobsen got swamped, so did Caleb. He’s another sprinter who should enjoy this finish, he’s very good at looking after himself in the final kilometre. 

Mads Pedersen – looked brilliant in the intermediate sprint but wasn’t in the picture for the stage win. Like all teams with a short train, they need luck in the closing stages, hopefully they get it tomorrow.

Phil Bauhaus – second place today was much better than I thought he would achieve in this race. Fair play to Bahrain, they threw resources behind their big German sprinter, and he delivered. He’ll go into this stage full of confidence, a dangerous commodity for a fast man.

Wout Van Aert – I don’t think he’ll sprint.

Sam Welsford – he’s got the grunt; he just needs the position.

Prediction Time

Winning consecutive Tour stages is very hard to do.

Embed from Getty Images

I’ll take a win for Fabio Jakobsen.