Katowice 16.6km ITT
The big day in terms of the GC, the TT was always going to settle who’ll take the GC crown home. Despite the gaps being relatively small, only a handful of riders can challenge Mohorič.
Route
Quite flat, there’s only 131m of climbing. There are a few corners, but also long straights for the specialists to lay down the power.
Weather
Heavy rain in the morning, which should clear for the afternoon. With the world championships just around the corner, riders will not be advised to take risks if they are riding the ITT in Stirling.
Contenders
Stefan Bissegger – he’s a big TT specialist, this will be a stage he’ll have been targeting for quite a long time. Despite being one of the best in the world, he’s not taken a win yet this season, he’s not really gone close. Bad luck always seems to follow him around, hopefully he can have a good run and fight for the win. He goes out early, he’ll need to pray to the weather Gods.
João Almeida – 3rd in the opening TT at the Giro was a huge result for him, he was only beaten by Evenepoel and Ganna. Since turning pro, Almeida has always had an excellent record in TTs, but he’s yet to win one outside of his national championships. He’ll have a double goal for this stage, go for the stage and the yellow jersey.
Geraint Thomas – he should be one of the men to beat, Thomas is always excellent on his TT bike. Ineos always seem to perform well in wet TTs, but with one eye on worlds, Thomas won’t be taking any unnecessary risks.
Thymen Arensman – won the TT here last year, but that included a long climb. As this is a flat TT, it suits others more than him, but he should still be fighting for the top 5.
Tobias Foss – this is his last time racing in the rainbow jersey unless he goes and smashes it in Stirling next week. Foss has had a poor year, to be honest, his time at Jumbo-Visma has not gone well. As a former winner of Tour de l’Avenir, everyone had high hopes for the Norwegian, but it’s just not worked out for him. It might be a little harsh on him, he did win the ITT world championship in 2022, but I expected him to be challenging for GC wins by now. He’ll be heading to Ineos next year, they obviously believe they can get the best out of him.
Matej Mohorič – back in 2021 he lost 18s to Almeida over 19.1km, that’s a good reference point for this TT. Due to the type of rider, he is, Mohorič rarely does TTs full gas, does that also mean he doesn’t spend a lot of time training on his TT bike? I think the answer would be yes, but that doesn’t mean he can’t hold onto the yellow jersey. Despite having great legs, I don’t think he’ll win the stage, his focus is trying to hold onto yellow. He’s got a buffer of 12s, this is going to be close.
Michał Kwiatkowski – he’s another who rarely goes full gas in TTs, but in the same TT in 2021, he only lost 5s to Almeida and put 13s into Mohorič. He’ll be quietly confident about putting pressure on Almeida and Mohorič, but 19s is a big gap to overturn.
Matteo Sobrero – top 10 contender.
Lennard Kämna – another top 10 challenger, but it depends on the weather.
Brandon McNulty – I’m expecting a very good TT from McNulty. He’s going to be riding the world championship ITT but not the road race, his focus since the Giro will have been this discipline. The poor weather forecast is a disappointment, there’s no way he can take risks if the roads are wet.
Ilan Van Wilder – he’s had an excellent week, but the yellow jersey seems outside of his reach. Van Wilder is very good in this discipline, if he gets the best of the weather conditions, he could push for the podium. However, he did crash today, the third crash he’s had in the race.
Mattia Cattaneo – Mr. Consistent. He’ll be around 5th to 10th; he rarely disappoints in this discipline.
Prediction Time
I’ll base this prediction on everyone riding on dry roads.
A stage win for Stefan Bissegger and GC win for João Almeida.
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