Kalundborg > Bagsværd 179km

Just a standard sprint stage.  

Weather 

Grey, but it should hopefully stay dry. 

Lap Circuit 

Three full laps of this circuit to finish with. Inside the final kilometre there’s two turns, at 800m and 650m to go. Then it’s full gas to the finish, with the road rising at around 2% for the final 200m. 

Tactics 

This is the only opportunity for a big sprint, the break doesn’t stand a chance. Soudal – Quick Step have the man to beat, but other teams will also want to get involved in chasing the break and earning the right to sprint. The final lap of the circuit is all about the two corners inside the final kilometre, a poor position at this point and its game over. 

This double corner offers a dominant team the chance to do something special, something we rarely see in the sport, but when it happens it really is a thing of beauty. Way back in 2015, Matti Breschel was on his way to a dominant win for the team, and it looked like he’d win the final stage and take his tally to three stage wins that week, but the team pulled off a blinder. They led into the final corner with four men, then the rider in position 4 allowed a gap to be created between himself and the front three. Mørkøv then launched the sprint from position 2, but the gap was impossible for the other sprinters to close, Breschel then swung across to the side of the road and looked behind, before slowing down and allowing Mørkøv to take a brilliant win. Poetry in motion. 

Will it happen again? Probably not. Soudal – Quick Step should lead into the corner, but other teams will be close behind and a traditional lead out will be launched. To win the stage, you need to be in the first 6 wheels for the corners.  

Contenders

Fabio Jakobsen – starts as the overwhelming favourite. It’s been good to see Fabio look so sharp this week, it would have been easy for him to allow his time at Soudal – Quick Step limp to a disappointing end, but he’s made of stern stuff. He’ll have Casper Pedersen and Mørkøv to lead him out, which means he’ll be in a good position for the double corner, beating him will be very difficult. 

Søren Wærenskjold – punctured at a terrible time today, but I think he was still going to be dropped by the pressure put on him by Mads and Skjelmose. This stage gives him a chance to strike back and take his second win of the week, but the GC is over for the big Norwegian. 

Mads Pedersen – I’m looking forward to seeing him go up against Jakobsen in the sprint. He’s been miles off him in the opening two stages but that was after using up vital energy, now he gets to sprint while being fresh. He might not win, but he should be able to put up a good fight. 

Jensen Plowright – he’s not had many opportunities to sprint since joining Alpecin- Deceuninck, but the Aussie is fast. He’s also got a very good sprint train to support him, hopefully he’s in the fight for the podium. 

Tobias Andresen – top 5, doesn’t have the top end speed required for a flat sprint. 

Matteo Moschetti – when he gets it right, he’s very fast. Since moving to Q36.5, the Italian has posted some good results, this is another chance for him to go for a top finish. 

Stanisław Aniołkowski – he’s got a couple of wins this season, but his move to Human Powered Health hasn’t been a great one. He’ll be in the top 10, but it’s hard to see him breaking into the top 5. 

Alexander Salby – normally rides for Bingoal, but he’s here with the Danish national team. Salby is an impressive sprinter, and he doesn’t mind taking a risk and going early. It would be good to see him going well in this stage. 

Prediction Time 

Embed from Getty Images

It’s very hard to see anything but a win for Fabio Jakobsen.