Lerma > La Laguna Negra.Vinuesa 163km

A very typical Vuelta stage, pan flat with a climb at the end. This is one of the easiest stages to control, but does anyone want to? After today’s TT, Kuss remains in red, and Remco is still surrounded by a gang of Jumbo-Visma and UAE riders. Do Jumbo want to chase for Roglič? QuickStep for Remco? UAE for Ayuso? Roglič is the favourite to win the stage, but it’s not a foregone conclusion he would beat Remco in a sprint, he’s already lost one to him.

Weather

A sunny day, it’s going to be a pleasant 25 degrees. There’s a light cross/headwind for most of the stage. The opening kilometres are exposed, but the wind isn’t strong enough and the wind is in the wrong direction to cause splits.

The Climb

The race was here in 2020, Dan Martin beat Primož Roglič in stage 3. 7km at 6.4% isn’t hard by grand tour standards, but there were gaps back in 2020. Basically, someone will set a fast pace and by the time we hit the final kilometre only the top 10-12 GC riders will be left. The final 700m is tough it averages 10%, and this is where gaps can be created, especially as the climb finishes at 1700m above sea level, it’s harder than it seems.