Chongzuo > Chongzuo 149km

The opening stage of the race is one for the pure sprinters, it’s a nailed-on bunch kick.

Weather

35 degrees, it’s a hot one.

Finale

No Streetview in his part of the world, so I just have to go off the map. The right bend comes with 2.4km to go and the finishing straight is 1.1km long.

Tactics

There’s a relatively late sprint point which should interest some of the GC riders, bonus seconds can be very important with just one GC day. In terms of the sprint, teams will be looking to leave it late before surging to the front, long sprint trains aren’t really a thing in this race. If you look back to previous editions of this race, you’ll see the sprint stages are very chaotic in the finale, which increases the chances of a surprise winner. Of course, that didn’t happen last year as Paul Magnier won all five sprint stages, but in 2024, Lionel Taminiaux and Warre Vangheluwe won a stage each.

The level this year is very high, Magnier and Kooij are here, two of the fastest sprinters in the world. Decathlon have the best sprint train; they haven’t come here for a holiday. Kooij will be supported by Hoole, Ghys, Bol and Gudmestad, that’s the best in the race by a distance. The other sprint teams should be happy to let Decathlon control until 2km to go, that’s when you’ll see the other squads looking to get the jump on them. Sit back, let Decathlon use up their men and then surge to the front and nail the final 2km. It sounds easy, but it’s not. 

QuickStep have Vangheluwe, Rex and Van Gestel on lead out duty, this is a good sprint train, but not as strong as Decathlon. The plus is the relationship that Magnier and Van Gestel have, they tend to get it right more often than not.

The other sprint train I like belongs to Bahrain, words that I don’t often put in a sentence. They have Eržen as their sprinter, which leaves Van Mechelen, Miquel and Skerl to support. They don’t often ride as a block, but if they get it right, they have the speed to get Eržen into a great spot for the finale.

Contenders

Paul Magnier – winning five from five last year was incredible, he really is a special talent. 2026 has been a great year for the Frenchman, he’s won 13 times. His sprint train isn’t as strong as Kooij’s, but he normally finds a way to win.

Olav Kooij – just like Magnier, he’s flying just now, winning his last two races. Kooij has enjoyed a great year with Decathlon, despite an injury which delayed his start to the year. Winning a stage in the Tour was huge, exactly why he signed for the team, he’d love to end the year on a high.

Jordi Meeus – just Drizners and Marit to support in the finale, he’ll need to carry a bit of luck in the final 2km. Meeus has had a good season, but he’s only won 4 times, it’s the story of his pro career. Can he win this stage? Yes. Will he win this stage? Probably not.

Žak Eržen – he’ll get the nod for Bahrain in the flat stages, a big opportunity for the young Slovenian. 5^th in Scheldeprijs hints that there’s a good sprinter in there, now it’s time to deliver.

EF – Lamperti or Van Den Berg, the team usually decide on the road who gets to sprint, something I hate.

Bob Donaldson – not really a bunch sprinter, but he’s got a good turn of pace, so I can see him giving it a go.

Lionel Taminiaux – the Lotto man is on a fine run of form; he’s finished in the top 5 in four of his last five races. As I’ve already pointed out, he’s won a stage in this race before, riders love returning to where they’ve previously gone well. His lead out looks okay, but not as strong as some, hopefully he can get a good run at the sprint.

Sam Welsford – another poor season for the Aussie, he’s a lucky boy that Jayco have signed him on a 2-year contract. He’s got the speed and power required but it just never seems to go according to plan when racing outside of Australia.

Frits Biesterbos – he’s been doing well recently for Picnic, one of their best riders this season. I get the feeling he’ll enjoy the chaotic finishes in this race.

Fabio Jakobsen – welcome back, Fabio. I was stunned when he signed for Visma, they are clearly hoping that the coaches can help Jakobsen get back to his old level. After so long being poor, I find it hard to believe a switch will be flicked and he’ll challenge for wins.

Max Kanter – the German sprinter likes this race; he’s finished 2^nd on three occasions over the last 2 years. He’s not raced much since the Tour de France, but he did win Gooikse Pijl 3 weeks ago. The bad news is a lack of support riders, only Livyns will be of any use.

Erlend Blikra – the big Norwegian has had a good year, 2 wins and a couple of 2^nd places. Uno-X always seem to do well in the final kilometres of sprint stages, Blikra will be hoping to fight for the top 3.

Milan Fretin – Cofidis have been doing well recently, they’ll be hoping that Fretin can keep the winning feeling flowing. The Belgian is a very good sprinter, but he’s another without a sprint train.

Matteo Moschetti – top 10 contender, top 5 on a good day.

Arvid De Kleijn – I like watching Tudor in sprint stages, they always punch above their weight. De Kleijn has had a frustrating year, he’d love to sign off with a win, which I think he’s capable of this week. Beating both Magnier and Kooij will be hard, but you just never know in these crazy sprints.

Juan Molano – his final race for UAE, the Colombian won a stage here back in 2023. He recently won the first stage in the CRO race but had to quit the race two days later, so there’s a question mark about his current shape.

Kaden Groves – 2026 has been a write off for him, I don’t see it changing now.

Prediction Time

A big fight between Magnier and Kooij, it looks like a two-horse race. Yes, you can see surprises in chaotic sprints, but I’m going with Olav Kooij, his superior lead out swings it for me.

Betting Corner

The bookies agree with me, Kooij is the favourite. 6/5 isn’t great, but it’s probably a fair price. I know that some of you are based in mainland Europe where bookies will regularly offer top 3/top 10 markets, which is where lots of money can be made. If you have access to those markets, you might want to take advantage in this stage. Based on the odds above, you’d get decent odds on Eržen as he’s 250/1 for the win, the same goes for Taminiaux who’s 100/1. If you want to simply bet on the stage winner, Kooij at 6/5 is good considering he’s got the best lead out.