Chongzuo > Jingxi 182km

The opening stage went the way of Paul Magnier, he managed to get a decent position in the final kilometre and launched a devastating sprint from 250m to go. As expected, Decathlon were the team with the best lead out, but Olav Kooij got bumped by Magnier when he went past, and he then seemed to sit up. Stage 2 is very similar to last year’s stage, Paul Magnier won that day, he’s now shooting for seven consecutive sprint wins in this race. Ignore the spiky bits in the profile, they are just measurement error.

Weather

Another hot day with temperatures in the low 30s.

The Climb

6.2km at 4.6%, but the organisers classify it as 8.3km at 3.9%.

Finale

The final curve comes with 500m to go and it’s a tailwind sprint. 

Tactics

Last year, only a handful of riders got into difficulty on the climb, I’d expect the same to happen this year. This should be another big, bunch sprint and all eyes will be on Paul Magnier. Yet again, he delivered a brilliant finish today, if he can manage to win seven consecutive sprint stages it would be a sensational achievement. 

Decathlon are the team who can stop him, Kooij will be determined to make up for today. When Magnier passed him on the left, they bumped together and Kooij seemed to lose all momentum, he then rolled home in 12^th place without even getting out his saddle. He’s showed all year that he’s got the speed to beat the best in the world, no doubt he’ll use today as extra motivation for stage 2.

In terms of the sprint, FDJ, Visma and Picnic were all active today, but they were “allowed” to control when it didn’t really matter. Leading the bunch with 5km to go doesn’t mean much if you get blown away inside 2km, they used up their men far too early. The wide roads in this part of the world does mean that teams can surge up the bunch quite late on, patience is very important. The best teams will hang a little further back, letting teams like FDJ control, and with 2km to go that’s when the rush to the front comes. Those who are already there are likely to get swamped, it’s very hard to react when a line of four guys comes flying past at high speed. 

Contenders

Paul Magnier – QuickStep did a great job today; they made a clever decision with 1km to go. With Van Gestel coming to the end of his powers, Magnier slipped onto the wheel of Kooij and let his team do all the work. Of course, he needed the power to finish it off, when he launched no one could follow. He’ll start as the big favourite to win this stage, but he cannot guarantee on being able to get the wheel of Kooij, there’s risk involved with that strategy.

Olav Kooij – it looked to be going exactly to plan today, his team nailed the lead out and Kooij was primed to launch, but Magnier went just before him. The collision between the two of them made it impossible for Kooij to win, I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on his final result. He’ll dust himself down and go again, having the best sprint train is a big advantage.

Max Kanter – 3^rd today was a good start for the German, he’s a rider who I like. He doesn’t have much support, but he uses his wide shoulders in the final kilometres to get where he needs to be. He was 6^th in this stage last year and 2^nd in 2024, he’ll be hoping to challenge for the win this time round.

Sam Welsford – 2^nd today was way better than I expected, it will give him confidence for the week ahead. The Aussie can’t climb, if the pace is relatively high on the hill I have my worries about him.

Luke Lamperti – top 10 today was a good start, once the stages start to have more elevation, his chances will increase. EF should be one of the teams looking to race the climb, putting a bit of pain into the legs of the pure sprinters will help Lamperti fight for the top 5.

Arvid De Kleijn – another of the sprinters who doesn’t climb very well, he’ll be hoping everyone is happy to go tempo on the climb and he can be in the mix for the win. 5^th today was a good start for the Dutchman, his lead out did a good job of getting him close to the front at the right time, they’ll hope for similar but a better end result for De Kleijn.

Jordi Meeus – one of the big disappointments in the opening stage, 25^th was a terrible start for the Belgian. This is the risk when you come to a race without much of a sprint train, it’s easy to end up in a poor position. He’ll dust himself down and go again, this time hoping for better luck.

Milan Fretin – another sprinter who won’t be happy with his opening result, 18^th was way below expectation. He did this stage in 2024, so he knows the finish, he’ll be aiming for the top 3.

Prediction Time

I’m expecting a similar finish to the opening stage, Decathlon should be the team controlling the final kilometre, but will Kooij be good enough to take the win? It’s hard to see anyone outside of the big two winning, but the wide roads in the finale does make it possible to see a surprise, this is the stage Vangheluwe won in 2024, Kanter was 2^nd that day. I’ll stick with my stage 1 prediction; a win for Olav Kooij.

Betting Corner

Yesterday, Kooij was 6/5 and Magnier 11/8, it’s now basically flipped due to stage 1. The question for me is whether to go back in on Kooij, switch to Magnier or not bet? I feel like Magnier won’t beat Kooij in every sprint, at some point the Dutchman should take the win, so I’ll go back in at 6/4.