Jingxi > Bama 211km

Stage 3 is another one quite a few of the riders will know. 211km is a long day in the saddle at this time of year, just under 2000m of climbing means it’s not flat either. Paul Magnier won here in 2025, Ethan Vernon the year before, it’s another stage which suits the fast men, but they need to cope with a few climbs.

Weather

32 degrees, cloudy sun. The wind will be crosswind all day, sitting around 17m/h, so probably not strong enough for any splits.

Key Points

This is the climbing section of the stage. There are two categorised climbs, 11.7km at 2.2% and 2.7km at 4.7%, but there’s also an unclassified kicker of 1.3km at 5.1% which crests with 12km to go.

Finale

Double corner which starts with 1km to go, the finishing straight is 900m long (there is a slight turn to the left with 300m left) and into a headwind.

Tactics

Great win today for Biesterbos, I’m happy I put him in my fantasy team. Magnier, once again, looked incredibly strong but this time he launched from slightly too far out. Kooij was the fastest in the final metres, but he started from too far back, if had the wheel of Magnier he would have won. Once again, I would expect QuickStep and Decathlon to be the teams who try to control the day, but there’s going to be attacks in the final 30km.

Today, the sprint teams were very good at anchoring all the moves, I think it’ll be harder in this stage. Lots of teams don’t have a rider who can win the sprint, they should look to attack on the hills and see if they can cause some disruption. 

As the stage is long, there won’t be as many domestiques left for the final 3km, I’m interested to see which team will end up with the best sprint train. Decathlon were strong again today, but Kooij was bumped off the wheel of Gudmestad and ended up in traffic. QuickStep were again very good, getting Magnier into a decent position, it should be those two teams again, but surprises can happen at the end of a long stage. Last year, two riders tried a late attack, if they had worked better together, they could have stayed away until the end. It should end in another sprint, but a late move could surprise.

Contenders

Paul Magnier – went long today, I was amazed he almost held on, it shows just how strong he is right now. He’ll sit back in the peloton and trust his team to control, then move forward in the final 2km and hopefully win another stage. His incredible run of stage wins in this race has now come to an end; his focus will now be on starting a new run. He needs to watch out in the finale, as it’s a headwind, he cannot launch early.

Olav Kooij – I was watching him closely today, he seemed to lack the motivation to fight for his lead out’s wheel. Yes, he finished well, but I wasn’t overly convinced by him. In this finish, there won’t be as many sprinters, which should make it easier for him to maintain a good position. Decathlon have brought a team here to win sprint stages, after two disappointments, the pressure is now on.

Frits Biesterbos – brilliant win today, his first as a pro. After a terrible season, there’s some light at the end of the tunnel for Picnic. They’ve taken a lot of stick this year, but fair play to them as they’ve given Biesterbos plenty of support and opportunities and now it seems to be paying off. Winning a second stage would be brilliant for the Dutchman.

Jordi Meeus – 6th today was a big improvement from the first stage, he’ll hope to continue the upward trend in this stage. The distance and climbing should be fine for the Belgian, the problem will be positioning in the finale, he needs help from his teammates.

Max Kanter – 4th today, another consistent finish for the German, he’s finished 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th in his last four races. He’s very good at maintain a good position, even without support, he’ll once again be aiming for the top 3.

Lionel Taminiaux – two 9^th places for the Belgian, I think this is a better finish for him. He’s another with good form, the top 5 is possible.

Luke Lamperti – wasn’t in the mix today, but this is another opportunity. The distance and elevation suit him better, if EF can help support in the finale, the top 5 is possible.

Mikkel Honoré – late attack option 1.

Jhonatan Narváez – late attack option 2.

Prediction Time

The attackers have a chance but it’s still more than likely to end in a sprint. Looking at him today, I cannot see past Paul Magnier. After trusting Kooij in the first two stages, I’ve now decided to jump ship, something seems not quite right with the Dutchman, the opposite is true for Magnier.

Betting Corner

I’ve had two swings at Kooij and both have lost, I cannot go back in for a 3^rd time. I could switch to Magnier(5/4 looks big), but sometimes you just have to accept things aren’t going your way and sit it out. If Kooij does win, I won’t be a happy bunny!