No TTT, the ITT is the first stage, and we finish with a sprint. The organisers have gone mad! The big news is the lack of a mountaintop finish, it’s always good to see races trying new approaches, hopefully we get an attacking race. Five of the top six from last year’s Tour are here, including the whole podium, this is a race full of big hitters.

Stage 1

The race begins with a 14km ITT. With just one corner, this is all about pure power.

Stage 2

A long stage of 219km, which will end in a sprint. 

Stage 3

The second sprint stage.

Stage 4

A tricky opening 40km will give the break hope, but it shouldn’t be successful. The stage ends with a lap circuit, with the final 4km averaging 6%. This is a punchy finish, one that will interest the puncheurs and climbers.

Stage 5

The classic Tirreno stage. Lots of steep climbs, narrow roads, and a stage to mark in your calendars. 

Stage 6

We don’t have a mountaintop finish, but two ascents of Monte Carpegna certainly make up for that. We’re talking around 6km at 10%, separated by a short descent. This is going to hurt! This climb has been used very sparingly in races, the last time it was a MTF was back in the 1974 Giro. 

Stage 7

The race ends with a standard sprint stage.

Contenders

Tadej Pogačar – well, what a performance that was yesterday. Pogačar approaches this race as the enormous favourite, his current shape is awesome. He has a good team to support him, Formolo, Majka and Soler should last deep into the finale of the GC stages. This is going to make it very difficult for anyone to try and put him under pressure, beating him is going to be tough.

Jonas Vingegaard – started the season off with a brilliant win in the Drôme Classic, that will certainly have settled any nerves. The young Dane is looking to follow up after a sensational 2021, there is newfound pressure on his shoulders, something that he’s never had to deal with. Getting an early win is exactly what he needed, some of that pressure will now have gone. He should like Monte Carpegna, but will he currently be at the level required to challenge for the win? 

Richard Carapaz – I’m not sure what to expected from Carapaz. He is without doubt an exceptional climber, but he wasn’t strong enough to beat Pogačar or Vingegaard last year. He’ll lose vital time in the TT; can he make it up on Monte Carpegna? That will be tough.

Enric Mas – by his standards, he started the season on fire. The Spaniard is someone who can take time to get up to speed, but 4^th in Valenciana was a great opening to his season. I find that Mas is an underrated rider, which is crazy considering his palmarès. One slight issue is his conversion rate, just five pro wins doesn’t do his talent justice. 

Julian Alaphilippe – is Monte Carpegna too hard for him? I think the answer must be yes. One ascent would have been okay, but two will likely push him over his limit, especially after his spectacular crash yesterday.

Remco Evenepoel – 6km at 10%, will he cope? We saw him falter in Valenciana, but he followed that up with an easy win in the Algarve. This is the first time I can remember him coming up against the very best climbers in the world at a huge race, it’s exciting to see how he measures up to Pogačar and co. He’ll obviously smash the TT, but his recent races suggest he’ll get dropped on Monte Carpegna.

Wilco Kelderman – his season hasn’t really got going yet. He had to quit Valenciana after a crash but did return to racing last weekend in France. Wilco is a very consistent rider, someone who always seems to be up in the top 10 of world tour stage races. Without much racing in his legs, we’ll have to wait and see what his current shape is like.

Mark Padun – I’m eager to see him matching up against the best in the world. No more losing time and going for the breakaway, it’s time for Padun to show us what he’s got from the main peloton. His double stage success at last year’s Dauphine was about as good as it gets, but he didn’t make the Tour team. EF swooped in and signed him up, they’re hoping they can polish him into a beautiful diamond. This race is a big moment in his career. 

Miguel Ángel López – he’s started the season in good form, he’s riding like someone who has a point to prove. The TT is bad news for him, but he’s one of the few riders who has a chance of challenging Pogačar on Monte Carpegna.

Prediction Time

Unless something monumental happens it’s another win for Tadej Pogačar.