Faro > Tavira 203.5km
Last year, the organisers used Tavira as the finish for the TT, but this year they return to the usual sprint finish. It’s technical, and harder than it looks.
Weather
Sunny and temperatures will be up around 18 degrees. There’s going to be a bit of wind around, but there aren’t many exposed sections, so I don’t expect any splits.
Finale
It’s all about the final 2.5km, as there are three roundabouts, the final one with 800 to go. Then there’s a fast corner with 400 to go, and the road starts to rise to the line. The gradients don’t look much on paper, but they always seem a little more in real life.
Tactics
All about getting near the front for the final 3km. The technicality of the finish means that anyone who’s a little further back will find it very hard to sprint for the win. It’s a finish that some of the QuickStep boys know well, even though Jakobsen hasn’t won here in three attempts, but only really two as one of them was when he was just coming back from injury.
The good news for Fabio is that both Mørkøv and Pedersen have guided sprinters to the win in this stage. Mørkøv nailed it for Bennett in 2020 and Pedersen did the same for Bol in 2019, their experience is crucial in this finish. They didn’t get it right on Wednesday, but given the strength of their sprint train, I doubt they’ll make the same mistake twice.
To win this stage you need to be in the first five wheels for the final corner, that’s where the race is for, but you still need the legs to finish it off.
Contenders
Fabio Jakobsen – it didn’t work for him on Wednesday, but this is another opportunity for him and the team. That’s now three consecutive sprints he’s failed to take a win, he’s due one. The key for this stage is to keep the train together, it would make sense for Fabio to move up the line a little, instead of sitting at the back.
Uno-X – I’m not sure if they’ll go with Kristoff or Wærenskjold. They took a brilliant win in the opening stage, and both even finished on the podium. The uphill finish is good for both, but given the technical finale, they need to commit to one of them, not try and give both the chance. Kristoff is the big dog; he should get the nod.
Jordi Meeus – he’ll like the sound of the uphill sprint, and he’s currently enjoying a good spell of form. Positioning shouldn’t be a problem, he’s got a good sprint train, but does he have the speed to take the win?
Madis Mihkels – he’s got the big boost of having Teunissen as his lead out, he guided Groenewegen to his win here in 2019. It won’t be easy for the youngster to win, making the podium would be huge for him.
Paul Penhoët – FDJ did a good job on Wednesday, 6th place was an okay result for them. I like the look of their sprint train, they’ve got lots of speed, and could well nail the final 2km. Penhoët has a good chance of challenging for the podium.
Trek-Segafredo – I don’t know if they’ll go with Theuns or Tesfatsion, the finish suits both.
Prediction Time
With the experience of Pedersen and Mørkøv, I think it’s a win for Fabio Jakobsen.
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