Olvera > Iznájar 164.2km

Given the GC position, and what happened today, it looks like another good day for the breakaway. The stage ends in Iznájar, which is where Serrano and Herregodts have won in previous years, but the finish this time round is different, it heads up tiny little streets, right through the centre of town. Teams will have to decide if they want another sprint finish against Pogačar or to try their luck in the break.

Weather

Cloudy sun and temperatures will be creeping up to 20 degrees. The riders will be faced with a strong crosswind for the opening hour of the race, but after that the wind is to decrease in strength.

Last 30km

Alto de El Jaramillo is the main climb of the day, it’s a cat 2 effort. 4.7km at 6.9% is a tough effort and it crests with 27km to go. The rest of the stage is up and down, there’s not much flat. The descents are very steep, it is possible for a good bike handler to put the others under pressure.

Finale

This is the horrible rise to the line. It’s very narrow and horribly steep.

Tactics

The stage begins with a short downhill, then it’s a cat 3 climb of 10.3km at 3.6%. This is perfect for those wanting to form a strong break that goes all the way. Today showed that all the teams are interested in going for the break, instead of going up against Pogačar in a sprint, it seems like their best way of winning a stage. 

The problem with anyone else wanting to win a stage is the dominance of UAE. Pogačar has two wins and now Wellens has one, who else from their team wants to join the party? The obvious answer is Alessandro Covi, this is a good finish for him.

With everyone wanting to join the break, the fight to make the move should take a considerable amount of time. UAE will be watchful in the opening kilometres, but the chances of a GC threat throwing caution to the wind is very low. There’s every chance we see something similar to today, with a large group getting away and fighting it out for the win. 

Contenders

Alessandro Covi – can UAE go four from four? I don’t see why not; they are clearly flying just now. With Wellens now closer on GC, it would make sense for Covi to be their man for this break. He showed last year just how fast he is going uphill; the end of this stage is perfect for him.

Matej Mohorič – did someone say technical descent near the finish? Mohorič is looking very strong just now, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him winning one of the final two stages. 

Luis León Sánchez – I don’t want to call him experienced, he’s younger than me! The “well-travelled” Astana rider takes a little while to get the legs going at the start of the season, that’s what happens when you reach a certain age! I think he’ll be active in this stage; it looks a good one for him.

Christian Scaroni – also an Astana rider, the Italian is one I’ve been keeping my eye on for a while. If he gets in the break, he’ll have a good chance.

Sergio Samitier – basically, he’s the last rider to have seen Pogačar this week! Samitier had a brief encounter with Pogi in Jaén, he even did the honourable thing and gave him a turn. Pogačar returned the favour by then dropping him, how rude. Anyway, Samitier can climb, I hope to see him in the break.

Brent Van Moer – not the first time I’ve mentioned him this week, can you tell I’m a fan? Climbing better than ever, this type of stage is now within his capabilities. 

Tadej Pogačar – if it comes back together, we all know how it ends.

Prediction Time

Embed from Getty Images

Another win for the breakaway, and I’ll go for Matej Mohorič, he’s starting to look nice and strong.