Lagoa > Lagoa 24.4km ITT

The race ends with a 24.4km ITT. It’s similar to the route used in 2021, when Kasper Asgreen took the win. With just 33 seconds separating the top 11, this is going to go down to the wire.

Weather

It should be dry for all, but the wind looks like it could drop a little for the late starters.

The Route

It’s a lumpy one, the 24km is full of little climbs which will make it hard for some to settle into a rhythm. 

GC Situation

1. Pidcock
2. Van Wilder 5s
3. Almeida 7s
4. Higuita 17s
5. Hindley 21s
6. Rui Costa 23s
7. Martínez 23s
8. Cort 28s
9. Ganna 32s
10. Mollema 32s
11. Foss 33s

Contenders

Filippo Ganna – starts as the favourite to take the stage win and GC. Ganna has climbed brilliantly this season, to only finish 21s down today was incredible. Given the way he’s started the season, anything but a win would be a surprise. Looking ahead of him, Almeida is the one he’ll be worried about, but most would fancy the Italian to take it all.

Thymen Arensman – not been his week, punctured in both GC stages. I started the week predicting he would take the win, but it’s not to be. He’s got one chance to impress, and he could push his rivals very close in the TT.

Stefan Küng – 2^nd, 3^rd, 1^st, 3^rd are his results in this TT in his last four attempts, that’s some record. Last year he came within an inch of being the world champion, that will motivate him to be even better this year. Write him off at your peril.

Tobias Foss – lines up in his rainbow jersey, that will give him a few extra watts. Losing 21s was poor today, he should have done better than that. On the plus side, his position on GC means he’s got several riders he can catch throughout his effort, gaining a little aero-boost each time. Given who’s here, this is a rematch of the worlds, but will he take another win?

Stefan Bissegger – it looks a little on the lumpy side for him.

João Almeida – well then, he’s going to feel the big TT riders breathing down his neck. The hilly route gives him a chance of taking the GC win, but he’ll need to ride the perfect race. It’s been a while since he did a great ride on his TT bike.

Kasper Asgreen – had a big ride in the break today, will he feel that in his legs? I would normally think so, but sometimes riders like Asgreen use that effort to open up their legs for the TT. Sounds weird, but that’s pro cycling for you! He should be racing in the KOM skinsuit, that’s not great.

Ilan Van Wilder – he’s in brilliant form, it’s taken him a while, but he’s now looking like the rider most of us expected to see. Van Wilder is very strong in this discipline, if everything clicks, he’ll be fighting for stage and GC success.

Magnus Cort – good on his TT bike, but not as good as the specialists already mentioned. He’ll be riding in the points skinsuit.

Tom Pidcock – doesn’t often try in this discipline, so he doesn’t have many results to use as a comparison. Given all the different disciplines he competes in, I doubt he spends much time on his TT bike, but that didn’t do van der Poel any harm. He’ll be riding in the race leader’s skinsuit.

Rémi Cavagna – another rider who’s flying just now. Given his current form, he should be challenging for the win.

Prediction Time

Embed from Getty Images

Stage and GC win for Filippo Ganna.