Villa de Otura > Alhaurín de la Torre 184.1km

The final stage of the race is similar to the one used in 2019, when Matteo Trentin won a reduced sprint, but there are two big differences. The first of these is the introduction of the cat 1 climb, and the finish is also a little bit harder. Will we see anyone trying to make a move on GC?

Weather

Quite a nice day to finish the race. The wind will reach around 15km/h and will mainly be a headwind in the final 50km.

The Climbs

The cat 1 climb is called Puerto del Sol, officially it’s 17.9km at 4.5% but the final 6.9km averages 6.6%. As it comes in the middle of the stage, it won’t have a big impact on the race, but it will add fatigue to the legs. A long descent follows before the riders hit the walls.

2.1km at 11% with a maximum of 21.3%. A short descent follows before the next wall.

700m at 13.5% with a maximum of 22.5%! The crest comes with 31km to go, most of which is flat.

Finale

They like a big roundabout in this part of the world. There’s six of them in the final 5km, including two in the last 500. Only one side will be open, which makes it very hard to move up in the final 500, those at the front for the first roundabout will still be there when the sprint launches.

Not only are the final kilometres quite technical but there’s the gradient to deal with too, the final 630m averages 4.9%. 

What the image doesn’t show is a right turn and a flat 100m to finish the stage. The organisers haven’t been the best at sharing the exact finishing position of the stages!

Tactics

What type of stage are we likely to get? The position of the three main climbs would normally mean the GC teams wouldn’t try and control the race, especially due to the 30km between the final climb and finish. However, this is modern day racing, and it continues to surprise and excite. In terms of the GC, only Mas will have hopes of doing something, but even moving onto the podium will be difficult for him. Movistar could well try something, but I don’t think they’ll control the break and look to try and win the stage. Mas will likely attack on the climbs and see if he can force something.

Everyone will be thinking the same, get in the break. Even some who are sitting in the top 10 will fancy this, but which riders would trigger a chase from UAE? Actually, it’s more about Bahrain and them looking to protect the podium. If you’re within 2-3 minutes of Landa and Buitrago, I doubt you’ll get much freedom.

I think we’ll see a large break get away in this stage, but the composition of it will depend on if it gets chased down.

Contenders

Matej Mohorič – tried on several occasions to make today’s break, but it wasn’t to be. When that failed, he hung on in the front group until very close to the end. He seems to be riding into some serious form, this is a stage he would love to win, but he needs to make the break.

Luis Léon Sánchez – made one incarnation of the break today, but it was brought back. He’ll try again in this stage.

Dylan Teuns – lost a lot of time today, was that on purpose? Given the way he’s ridden this week, I think he deliberately lost the time to free him up to go for this break. The steep climbs suit him well, as does the rise to the line. If he makes the break, he’ll be one to beat.

Pierre Latour – another rider who keeps on trying. He doesn’t win very often, but we all love a trier.

Tim Wellens – it all depends on what UAE want to do. They’ve won every stage of this race; it would be an incredible achievement if they go five from five. Pogačar has them covered if it comes back together, Wellens would be an excellent option from the break. He rode strong today, and then lost enough time to be able to go for the break in this stage. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him in the morning move.

Alessandro Covi – another good breakaway option for UAE.

Pavel Sivakov – another who impressed today, but the finish isn’t ideal for him.

Nick Schultz – 6th today was a sign of improving form. He’s over 4 minutes down on GC, that’s enough to buy some freedom. The climbs suit him in this stage, as does the punchy finish.

Lorenzo Rota – 3rd today was a brilliant result for the Italian, he now sits 3:23 down on GC. This isn’t the problem, he’s only 2 minutes off the podium, that’s the problem. Bahrain will not be happy losing their podium spots, I don’t think Rota will be very popular if he makes the break.

Andreas Kron – he’s in a similar position to Rota, he’d love to be in the break, but he’s a threat to the podium.

Brent Van Moer – I’ll keep bashing on about him until he wins.

Tadej Pogačar – if it comes back together, he wins again.

Prediction Time

Embed from Getty Images

I’ll take another breakaway win for Tim Wellens.