Sittard > Watersley 114km/men & 89km/women

As expected, Jakob Söderqvist won the men’s ITT, continuing his fine run of recent form. He now leads the GC by 14 seconds to Hayter and 15 seconds to Fisher-Black. Other notable riders are Reinderink at 22 seconds, with the Visma pair of Campenaerts and Laporte at 29 seconds. In the women’s race, Nooijen was the ITT winner, she now leads Tas by 20 seconds and Vinke is at 31 seconds. Stage 3 is a more challenging lap circuit, the men do it 4 times and the women do 3 laps. 

Weather 

Another cracking day. Despite starting at 10:00, the women will get temperatures in the high teens, with the men getting a max of 20 degrees.

Circuit

The picture doesn’t show the narrow roads, quite a lot of circuit takes place on bike paths.

Finale

Two climbs in the final 2.5km. They are 600m at 5% and 400m at 7%, with a flat finish.

The left turn onto the final climb comes with just 500m to go.

Tactics

Is the finish too hard for Merlier? He’s not the best climber in the world, but as the hills are short, he does have a chance. I think all eyes will be on Visma; they need to make this a hard stage to put Lidl-Trek under pressure in the hope of gaining some time back on GC. Söderqvist only has four teammates, but three of them are from the devo team, only Theuns rides at the elite level. With Campenaerts high on GC, Visma can potentially use him as an attacking option, before unleashing Laporte. The narrow roads will help any attackers, but my gut would be that this stage will still end in a sprint. 

The two climbs in the final 2.5km will obviously make it hard, those at the front will smash up the first one, stretching out the peloton and the narrow bike path will make it very hard for anyone to move back up the bunch. Then it’s quickly into the final kilometre and up the steeper climb, which is a bit of a leg snapper, this is why I think the bookies won’t fancy Merlier taking the win.

In the women’s race, Visma have the lead and a very strong team, they’ll dictate the type of race we get. They’ll be worried about Sandrine Tas, she’s just 20 seconds down and is more than capable of winning more stages this week and taking more bonus seconds. Lotto should do everything they can to set up a sprint finish and I think they’ll get help from SD Worx, Fenix and AG Insurance.

Contenders

Christophe Laporte – the uphill finish is very good for the Frenchman, Visma will be going for the stage win. There’s a chance of gaps on the line, and if he takes the 10 bonus seconds, he’ll put himself back into a strong position to win the overall race. I would expect Fiorelli to be used as a lead out, they can fly into the final corner and launch Laporte, then you’ll see if anyone can keep up with him.

Tim Merlier – not ideal for him, the final rise to the line will make it very hard to take the win. I wouldn’t discount him totally, but it’s unlikely he’ll win.

Pepijn Reinderink – teammate of Merlier and after an excellent ITT he’s in a good spot on GC. He’s been climbing well recently, I think he’ll be co-leader in this stage, but beating the sprinters will be very hard.

Sente Sentjens – big, strong, lump of a lad who should like this type of finish. 

Pavel Bittner – he’s got a better chance than Merlier to win this stage, the Czech sprinter isn’t too bad on climbs. If he can get a good position for the final corner, he could cause a small upset.

Lukáš Kubiš – the finish is too hard for Groenewegen, Kubiš will be the man for Rose Rockets. He’s got a good chance of pushing Laporte all the way, but he rarely wins.

Charlotte Kool – lost in stage 1 as Guarischi tried to take her into the barriers. Kool isn’t an amazing climber, but as the final rise is relatively short, it should be just fine for her. Fenix will ride for a sprint and expect success.

Sandrine Tas – great win in stage 1 and after a strong ITT she’s got a decent chance of fighting for the overall title. This finish suits her, Tas will be aiming for the win but as long as she takes bonus seconds, it’s a good result for Lotto.

AG Insurance – they went with Steigenga in stage 1, but this day could be one for Borghesi. Both are capable of pushing for the top 3.

Femke Markus – SD Worx went for Guarischi in stage 1, the uphill finish should suit Markus or Gerritse more. Markus will be moving to Visma at the end of the season, it would be nice to end on a high.

Pfeiffer Georgi – not as much of a sprinter as those already mentioned, she’ll be hoping for a hard day, which will take the edge off the sprinters. If Georgi gets into the final corner first, she’ll launch early and try to drop her rivals. She tried this move in Binche, but couldn’t get a gap, but it’s still her best hope and this hill is steeper.

Prediction Time

Wins for Christophe Laporte and Charlotte Kool.

Betting Corner

They really don’t fancy Merlier! I’d be happy to take the 7/4 on Laporte.