Bama > Tian’e 165km

Big win today for Milan Fretin, his first at world tour level, in what was another messy sprint. Kooij’s problems continued and Magnier unclipped during the sprint, but Fretin took a deserved win. Stage 4 is much harder than the first three stages, but the sprinters will still hope to fight for the win.

Weather

Max of 30 degrees and a relatively strong tailwind for most of the day. 

Key Points

This is the first categorised climb of the day, 6.4km at 3.6%.

The next two are 8.6km at 3.3% and 8.2km at 4.8%.

The last categorised climb is 7.8km at 3.8%.

The final climb is uncategorised, 1.7km at 5.4%. I don’t have a reliable graphic for this as my Veloviewer isn’t liking this part of the world! The crest comes with 24.4km to go, most of which is downhill.

Finale

Tricky section with 900m to go and the finishing straight is headwind.

Tactics

164km and 2680m of climbing, this isn’t as straightforward as the opening three sprint stages, but will it still end in a sprint? Decathlon and QuickStep should be the main teams looking to control the stage, but they’ll need to get some help. As Fretin and Biesterbos have won stages this week, I’d expect Cofidis and Picnic to also help out. The problem will be if the puncheur teams get on the front on the climbs and start to drill it, that’s when sprinters and domestiques could end up in trouble.

The problem for those wanting to upset the sprinters is the placement of the climbs, 1500m of the climbing comes in the opening 80km, leaving just 1180m in the rest of the stage. The final categorised climb doesn’t look that hard, but there are two kickers which will likely see some action. The first of these comes with 38km to go and there’s a bonus sprint which could interest the GC riders but there’s a chance the break is still away. This climb is 1.7km at 5.1% and I’ve already mentioned the final kicker, 1.7km at 5.4%. If you look at different sites, the gradients are not the same, that’s due to measurement issues in this part of the world. 

If the bonus seconds are up for grabs, this is a danger point for the sprint teams. The GC riders will go for it, which will create a gap to the peloton, but will they continue after? With 36km to go, they might not bother, but if a strong group of 4 or 5 start working together, it could be a tough chase for the sprint teams. It’s the type of stage which suits Jhonatan Narváez, but UAE don’t have the team to make this a really hard day, most of their squad at this race aren’t the best climbers. 

For the sprint teams, making sure the right break escapes it’s vital. There’s a few climbs in the opening phase of the stage, they’ll need to work hard in the opening kilometres to ensure they don’t have to work too hard during the rest of the day. The good news for these teams is the long downhill in the final 24km, a fast-moving peloton will be confident of chasing down any attackers who are still up the road. 

Contenders

Paul Magnier – was unlucky today, but I’m not sure he would have beaten Fretin. Magnier climbs well for a sprinter, he should be confident about surviving the hills in this stage and going for another stage win. The big pressure will be on the shoulders of his teammates, they need to make sure the attackers don’t win, having Cras and Van Wilder is good, they can help on the climbs and hopefully save the sprint train for the final kilometres. 

Olav Kooij – another poor showing today, I actually went back and tried to find out what happened to him. It looked like Decathlon were going for a late surge, but the train lost contact with each other. By the time they found each other again, there simply wasn’t enough road left to get Kooij to the front. That’s three days in a row things haven’t gone according to plan; I sense a growing frustration within the team. The climbing in this stage shouldn’t scare Kooij, he’s another who climbs well. A reduced group in the finale will help him, it reduces the chances of a poor position.

Milan Fretin – great win today, he’ll hope this is another chance. Getting his first world tour win was huge, the pressure is now off his shoulders, but he’ll want more. Fretin is a decent climber, I think he should survive and be in the mix for the sprint.

Max Kanter – probably not as good a climber as the three already mentioned, but he’s not as bad as some think. Today wasn’t great, he finished 20^th and got a yellow card, now he’s got to watch himself during the rest of the race. 

Frits Biesterbos – he’s flying just now, hopefully he can survive the climbs and go for another win, it would certainly help my fantasy team!

Jordi Meeus – 3^rd today, he continues to improve. He’s a bit heavier than the other sprinters but can cope with short climbs. 

Luke Lamperti – it’s not clicked yet for EF, this will be their best chance yet. A smaller group will be good news, it increases the chances of their short lead out getting it right.

Jhonatan Narváez – how small does the group have to be for him to win the sprint? I’d say around 20 riders and I just don’t see this stage being that selective.

Prediction Time

It’s all to do with the profile you are looking at. La Flamme Rouge have the final kicker as 1.7km at 8.5%, I’m seeing 1.7km at 5.4%. They have the final 2km of the last categorised climb as 2km at 7%, I have 2.4km at 5.8%. If the figures I have are right, I see a sprint finish, but who’ll take the win? I’m going Olav Kooij.

Betting Corner 

Apologies folks, I had a sneaky bet before telling you. The market opened with Narváez as the 4/1 favourite, Magnier 5/1 and Kooij at 14/1. After losing on in him in the first two stages, I couldn’t resist another bet on Kooij. The bookies had clearly priced it off the PCS profile, they use La Flamme Rouge, hence making Narváez the favourite. The market has now settled, but it now looks impossible to take both Magnier and Kooij, which was my initial plan. I can’t help being attracted by Kooij, even though he’s now only 6/1.

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