Yizhou > NongLa 166km

Stage 5 ended with a very messy sprint, one where Magnier and Biesterbos both hit the deck, and it was Milan Fretin who took the win. The Belgian will remember this race with fond memories, he’s now taken his 1^st and 2^nd world tour wins. Stage 6 and it’s the big GC day ending at the Nongla Scenic Spot, a climb which is always used in this race.

Weather

Same as the rest of the week with a temperature of 32 degrees and cloudy sunshine. The wind will be 10km/h and it’s a tailwind on the big climb.

Finale

4.2km at 7.5%, with a maximum of 16.3%. The hardest section is saved for the end, the final 1.3km averages 10% and that’s where the max gradient can be found.

Tactics

Hold the race together and then punch up the climb, it sounds very easy. It might surprise you, but I think the break has a chance of taking the win, but it’s got to be a move without a GC threat. Pidcock might want the bonus seconds, but plenty of riders will want to try their luck from the morning break.

Once we get to the climb, it starts with a punch, then has around 500m of flat and then the final 1.5km up to the line. In previous editions, some riders have won by launching from distance, other editions have been won in a “sprint”. The key for the main contenders is having a domestique left to chase those who attack from distance, if the group is down to just the main favourites, no one will want to do the work. Tom Pidcock is the big favourite to win the race, Q36.5 have Milan Vader in the team, he won on this hill in 2023 but he’s the only climbing domestique in the team. This is a worry, if everyone looks at Pidcock, and his team, someone could well slip up the road.

Narváez has done a good job of collecting bonus seconds this week, he now leads Pidcock by 6 seconds and the other GC favourites by 7 seconds, this allows him to be the rider trying to follow moves, not the one looking to attack. UAE will be more than happy if the break takes the win, it’s up to the other teams to chase. 

The final 1.5km of the climb requires a lot of explosivity. I’ve seen some riders in the past go too deep on the early slopes and explode in the final kilometre, it’s a climb where you’ve got to carefully measure your effort. It’s also the final day of a long season, no one can guarantee their legs will respond in the expected way, it adds to the beauty of the stage.

Contenders

Tom Pidcock – he’ll start as the man to beat; the climb suits him very well. Pidcock is experiencing a good run of form, but he’ll be frustrated at missing out on a couple of wins. Q36.5 don’t have a lot of climbing depth, there is a chance Pidcock gets blocked in the peloton with everyone looking at him. My advice would be to attack when he’s out of teammates, no matter how far out that it. Slim down the peloton and then see what happens, a smaller group is much easier to control.

Jarno Widar – another rider who’ll love the look of the final climb. Widar recently beat Pidcock in Tre Valli Varesine, that will give him confidence ahead of this stage. That was his first pro win, it would be cool to end the season with his first world tour win.

Jhonatan Narváez – can he follow the better climbers? His recent form has been good, but not great, I’m not too sure if he’ll fight for the win. His goal will be the GC, it’s about trying to follow the best and not allow any gaps to open up in the final metres. 

Kévin Vauquelin – he’s a wall climb specialist; this should be a good finish for the Frenchman. He recently took the win in Giro d’Abruzzo, so the form is good, he should be in the mix for the win.

Louis Barré – injury disrupted the first half of the season, but he’s looked very strong since August. Barré is a punchy rider, but I fear the climb might just be too much for him, he’s one who’ll need to carefully measure his effort.

Paul Double – don’t forget the defending champion, even though his current form doesn’t look that good. Double was brilliant on this hill last year, with most of the Vuelta in his legs, he’ll be hoping for a good day.

Léo Bisiaux – young Frenchman who’s had an excellent season for Decathlon. He’s a decent climber and packs a fast finish, he’ll hope to challenge for the win.

Bjorn Koerdt – my dark horse for this stage. Picnic have had a great race, hopefully Koerdt can show everyone his ability.

Lennard Kämna – breakaway hopeful number 1.

Dries De Bondt – breakaway hopeful number 2.

Niklas Behrens – breakaway hopeful number 3.

Prediction Time

It’s hard to see past Tom Pidcock.

Betting Corner

It doesn’t look like great value on Pidcock, I’ll sit it out.

2027 Previews

It’s been one hell of a year! By the time I publish today’s previews, I’ll have written 500 of them in 2026, the most I’ve ever done by a considerable distance. Previews will cost £80 next year, but you can sign up now for £60, the deadline is Sunday night. As always, thank you for all the support.