Hoogeveen > Col du Vam 150km/men & 115km/women

Stage 3 of the men’s race was a perfect example of what can happen late in the season. Visma played the multi-leader strategy, Campenaerts now leads the race by 15 seconds to Wessel Mouris, Fisher-Black is at 30 seconds and I’ll skip a few riders to jump to Laporte at 1:09. It now puts Visma into a strong position, but stage 4 isn’t one that would normally suit Campenaerts, I’m looking forward to seeing how they race.

In the women’s race, Femke Markus won with a bold attack. She held off the chasing pack by just 5 seconds, which was led home by Lieke Nooijen, she was outstanding and leads Markus by 28 seconds on GC. Visma are in control of both races, exactly what they wanted to do on home roads. 

Stage 4 isn’t the same for the men and women. The women just do laps of the Col du Vam, it’s eight times up the climb in total. The men do a route which features four/five sections of cobbles, before completing three ascents of the Col du Vam. Some of the sectors need to be seen to be believed!

Weather

10 degrees, cloudy sun and the wind will be 20km/h. 

Men’s Race

This is the first cobble sector, yes, that tiny strip of land on the left with grass growing over the pavé. This looks insane.

Up there is the penultimate sector, again, it looks a bit crazy.

Lap Circuit

Three laps for the men, seven for the women.

Tactics

In the men’s race, both Red Bull and QuickStep got it wrong today. Campenaerts ended up getting crucial time, Fisher-Black at least managed to limit the damage but Reinderink got caught in the peloton and is now 1:02 behind the Belgian. Both teams need to go for it in this stage, there’s no guarantee Campenaerts will survive. He’s decent enough on cobbles, but he’s not explosive enough for the Col du Vam, which is where the others need to strike. The good news for Visma is that Laporte will be there, he was brilliant on the Col du Vam last year and is still in with a shout of winning GC. The team will give Campenaerts first option, but if he struggles the Frenchman will come to the fore.

It’s not just Red Bull and QuickStep who have options in this stage, Rose Rockets have Mouris in 2^nd and Kopecky in 4^th, they’ve got a big opportunity to do something here. First of all, everyone needs to survive the cobbles, then we’ll see what the race situation looks like. I’ll be honest, I have no idea how this stage will play out, but I think it’s going to be exciting!

In terms of the women’s race, SD Worx will try and put pressure on Visma. They have Markus and Vinke in 2^ndand 3^rd on GC, but the issue is that Nooijen looks very strong, and Visma also have De Vries in 5^th. I wouldn’t normally think that Nooijen would do that well on the Col du Vam, but she was incredibly strong on the uphill sections today. One thing is certain, this will be a very difficult stage for the women, expect a tiny peloton by the end.

Contenders

Christophe Laporte – it all depends on how Visma approach the stage. I think it would be foolish to put all the eggs in Victor’s basket, Laporte needs to be co-leader. He was brilliant in this stage last year and can take advantage of having a teammate in the race lead, if Laporte gets up the road with a group of contenders, he can refuse to work and then strike when everyone is tired. 

Victor Campenaerts – I have my doubts about his ability to cope with a stage like this.

Finn Fisher-Black – just 30 seconds behind Campenaerts and 39 seconds ahead of Laporte, the Kiwi is in a great position, but I don’t think this stage necessarily suits him. He won’t like the cobbles and I’m not sure the Col du Vam is his cup of tea either, but I’ll happily be proven wrong.

Tomáš Kopecky – 4^th on GC and should be looking to push up onto the podium. Kopecky has what it takes to do well in this stage, he should be fine on the cobbles, and he has the punch required for the Col du Vam.

Pepijn Reinderink – he’s got to have a big crack at this stage. The Dutchman is currently in brilliant form, I’m looking forward to him taking the race to Visma.

Lieke Nooijen – so strong today, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Nooijen win the stage and just about secure the GC.

Femke Markus – excellent attack today, realistically, I think she’s the only one who can now beat Nooijen on GC. Markus has the grunt required to cope with this stage.

Nienke Vinke – technically speaking, she’s the best climber in the race, but you need to be a puncheur to cope with the Col du Vam, not a mountain climber. I don’t think the lap circuit suits her that well.

Letizia Borghesi – strong today, this is an excellent stage for the Italian. She should sit back and let SD Worx and Visma test each other, then try to win the stage. 

Pfeiffer Georgi – good ride today, as she sits 1:03 down on GC, Georgi could get some freedom later in the stage.

Prediction Time

How many times can I pick Christophe Laporte to win a stage and for him not to win? Well, I’m picking him again! In the women’s race, I’ll go with Lieke Nooijen, she really impressed me today.

Betting Corner

It’s insane that Merlier is 2^nd favourite for this stage, he should be nowhere near it. Laporte should be winning at 9/4, and I think he could even still have a shot at GC, he’s 16/1.