Jinchengjiang > Yizhou 170km

Stage 4 did go the way of the climbing sprinters, Paul Magnier taking his 2^nd win of the race. My pick, Olav Kooij, was a DNS, but I’m still taking it as a moral victory! Stage 5 is another which suits the fast men, but with big gaps now on GC, it’s possible for the early break to take the glory.

Weather

Cloudy sun, 31 degrees. 

Finale

The last corner comes with 900m to go, the finishing straight has a crosswind coming from the right. This would normally mean everyone would want to be on the left, but it depends if there are buildings on the right, blocking the wind.

Tactics

Will the break manage to take a win? QuickStep will ride for a sprint, and as the climbs come in the first half of the stage, I’d expect all the sprinters to survive. This will mean that more teams will also want to get involved in chasing the break, making it hard for the attackers to stay away. The other bad news for them is the wind, the final 70km is into a headwind of around 18km/h. If the break is going to stay away, it’s going to need around 6 riders, all of whom have to be very strong.

In terms of the finish, it’s very straightforward. Streetview isn’t a thing here, but the roads always seem to be very wide, which makes things hard to control. Kooij is no longer in the race, but Decathlon still have an excellent sprint train, it’s now just missing their finisher. QuickStep have consistently produced the goods this week, with both Tudor and Picnic punching above their weight. I’d expect those teams to be the ones controlling in the finale.

Contenders

Paul Magnier – brilliant win today, a real show of power in the sprint. His teammates also deserve a massive pat on the back, they were flawless throughout the stage. Magnier will see this as a huge chance of taking his 3^rd win of the week, which will also seal the sprint jersey. His lead out still looks good, Magnier will start as the big favourite.

Frits Biesterbos – he’s having a brilliant week, 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th in the last three stages is way above what most people thought he was capable of. You can see how the confidence from winning has given him extra belief, it’s amazing what a win can do. His lead out have also had a good race, there’s a chance he can beat Magnier and take his 2^nd win of the week.

Milan Fretin – another of the stage winners this week, Fretin was dropped today, but this stage should be fine for him as the climbs come quite early. He doesn’t have much of a sprint train, but if he carries a bit of luck, he can fight for the win.

Max Kanter – his consistent week continued today with another 3^rd place. I think he’s got what it takes to take the win, being on the wheel of Magnier would be ideal.

Jordi Meeus – did well to survive today but wasn’t able to push for the win. This is his final chance to take a final win for Red Bull, he’s got the speed to do it, but a lack of support makes it hard.

Cees Bol – he’s now the Decathlon sprinter, 2^nd today was a great start. The team still have a great train, riding without Kooij now means they’ll sit further back and save everyone for the finale. Bol wouldn’t normally win a full bunch sprint against someone like Magnier, but a good position could help him go for the top 3.

Arvid De Kleijn – dropped today but that wasn’t a surprise, he really doesn’t climb well. This is a much better stage for the Dutchman, I think he should be able to best his best result this week, he’s better than 5^th in this company.

Lionel Taminiaux – I keep mentioning him, but he’s yet to do better than 9^th. Keep the faith!

Sam Welsford – 2^nd in the opening stage but nothing since. He’s another who should enjoy this type of stage, and if he can sprint like he did in the opening stage, he’s got a chance of challenging for the win.

Fabio Jakobsen – 4th place in stage 3, I wonder how his body will react to being in the 5th stage of the race, he’s not ridden too many stage races this year. He could find himself a little on the tired side, but as this will be his final sprint of the year, hopefully he can dig deep and find a little extra.

Juan Molano – 6th is his best result this week, he’s not really been close to the top 3. He’s the type of rider you can’t write off, especially in a messy sprint.

Fredrik Dversnes – breakaway hopeful number 1.

Rune Herregodts – breakaway hopeful number 2.

Prediction Time

Another win for Paul Magnier.

Betting Corner

I wouldn’t take 4/9 in a single bet but as Bet365 have plenty races up, you can combine it with the other races this weekend.